何叶荣 陈瑞 方颖

摘 要：为了有效测度房地产市场风险，探索其可持续发展路径，以安徽省16个地级市房地产市场为调研对象，通过实地访谈、专家论证等方式，从库存、价格、资金链、政策环境等四个方面甄别房地产市场风险因素;运用结构方程模型（SEM）实证研究房地产市场风险对可持续发展的作用路径，诠释房地产市场风险的形成机理。研究结果表明：对房地产市场健康可持续发展作用效果影响最大的风险因素是资金链，其次是库存，价格的作用效应值较小，政策环境的作用效应值最小。据此，为房地产市场健康可持续发展探索新的路径，为房地产市场调控提出针对性的对策建议。

关键词：房地产市场;风险测度;作用路径;结构方程;可持续发展

中图分类号：F 293   文献标识码：A   文章编号：1672 - 7312（2020）02 -0154-06

Abstract：In order to measure the risk of the real estate market effectively，explore its sustainable development path，the real estate markets in 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui province was taken as the research object.The real estate market risk factors are identified from four aspects，including inventory，price，capital chain and policy environment，through field interviews and expert argumentation.The structural equation model （SEM） is used to empirically study the action path of real estate market risk on healthy and sustainable development，and to interpret the formation mechanism of real estate market risk.The research results show that：the risk factor that has the biggest impact on the overall effect of the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market is the capital chain，next is inventory，the effect value of price is small，and the effect value of policy environment is the minimum.Accordingly，the paper explored new paths for the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market，and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the regulation of the real estate market.

Key words：real estate market;risk measurement;action path;structural equation model;sustainable development

0 引言

我国经济发展进入“十三五”时期，房地产市场亦呈现新特征，区域分化严重，风险逐渐显现。因此，参考国际成熟经验，完善房地产信托投资基金有关配套政策，为房地产业提供长期的融资渠道，促进房地产企业向“轻资产”经营模式转型，防范系统性金融风险，加快建立和完善房地产市场平稳健康发展的长效机制[1]。2019年房地产市场风险被列为重大风险之一。习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部坚持底线思维着力防范化解重大风险专题研讨班上指出，维护社会大局稳定，要做好住房市场调控，有效防范风险连锁联动;要稳妥实施房地产市场平稳健康发展长效机制方案[2]。……