张鑫 田雪灿 刘鑫雅

摘   要：反复性舆情作为网络社会中常态化存在，对其进行针对性研究和科学预测，有助于引导舆情健康发展，维护网络社会稳定。文章构建了面向反复性事件的网络舆情风险评估指标体系，采用德尔菲法和层次分析法对指标体系进行了检验和权重测量。在此基础上，以“垃圾分类”舆情事件为例，通过统计分析、主成分分析、文本情感分析等方法，剖析了舆情主体、舆情客体、关键传播节点等不同指标在舆情各阶段所呈现的特征，重点比较了舆情反复阶段与其它阶段特征的异同。研究结果为反复性网络舆情的有效识别、风险评估及科学引导提供了参考依据。

关键词：反复性事件;网络舆情;风险;评估指标

Abstract Public opinion about recurrent events is the existence of normalization in the network society. The targeted research and scientific prediction will help to guide the orderly development of public opinion and maintain the stability of the network society. This study constructs a risk assessment index system of network public opinion for recurrent events， uses Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process to test and measure the weight of the index system. Based on this， taking the "Garbage Classification Event" as an example， this study analyzes the characteristics of indicators such as public opinion subject， public opinion object and key communication nodes in each stage of public opinion through statistical analysis， principal component analysis and text emotion analysis， and especially compares the similarities and differences between the recurrent stage and other stages. The results provide a reference for the effective identification， risk assessment and scientific guidance of recurrent public opinion.

Key words recurrent events; network public opinion; risk; evaluation index

隨着在线社区、微博、微信等社会化媒体的快速发展及移动终端的逐渐普及，网络舆情也愈加复杂，其性质类型多样，持续时间不等，舆情演化及衍生风险动态多变，需要对其进行及时跟踪及风险评估。从国内外网络舆情事件的发生周期来看，既有映射一次性重大社会事件的网络舆情，也有呈现明显反复性特征的网络舆情。前者从事件发酵直至基本消亡，对社会的影响程度往往集中于特定时间段以内;而后者则多是一些长期受公众关注的事件或话题，由于并没有最终的结果或结论而长时间的处于亚沸点状态，一旦有相关事件进展发生，若舆情应对及治理不得当则可能引发新的舆论热潮，或存在不同程度的舆情风险[1]。……