赵培芳 王玉斌

摘要：为揭示农业劳动力老龄化对农业增收的作用机制，利用2016年中国家庭追踪调查数据，在评估老龄化对农业增收直接作用的基础上，进一步探究了农机服务在其中的作用机制。研究发现：（1）农业劳动力老龄化、农机服务对农户农业增收具有显著影响。农业劳动力老龄化程度越高，对农业增收的抑制作用越大;农机服务程度的提高则能显著提高农业收入。考虑内生性问题后，这一结论仍然成立。（2）农业劳动力老龄化和农机服务对农业增收的影响在不同地区和不同收入组具有明显的异质性。（3）构建中介模型后，发现农机服务对农业增收发挥的正向间接效应能够弱化老龄化直接效应的负向影响，具体表现为遮掩效应。此外，农地流转、非农就业、社会网络、家庭定期存款等也是影响农业增收的重要因素。

关键词：老龄化;农机服务;农业增收;遮掩效应

中图分类号：F304.6文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4440（2020）06-1589-06

Abstract：In order to reveal the mechanism of the aging of agricultural labor force on the increase of agricultural income， the data of the China Family Panel Studies（CFPS） in 2016 were used to evaluate the direct effect of aging on the increase of agricultural income and further explore the mechanism of agricultural machinery services. The results showed that the aging of agricultural labor force and agricultural machinery services has a significant impact on the farmers' agricultural income. The higher the aging degree of agricultural labor force， the greater the restraint effect on agricultural income growth. The improvement of agricultural machinery service level could significantly increase agricultural income. After considering the endogeneity problem， this conclusion still holds true. The effects of the aging of agricultural labor force and agricultural machinery services on agricultural income were obviously heterogeneous in different regions and different income groups. After constructing the mediating effect model， it was found that agricultural machinery service could weaken the negative effect of aging on agricultural income， which was manifested as the masking effect. In addition， farmland transfer， non-agricultural employment， social network， household fixed deposit were also important factors.

Key words：aging;agricultural machinery service;agricultural income;masking effect

促进农民增收是农业农村发展的根本目的，也是实现乡村振兴战略的重要目标。农业收入是农民收入增长的根基。农业收入的不稳定将会增加农民整体收入稳定增长的难度[1]。随着农村劳动力的大量外移，老年人逐渐成为农业生产的主力军。第三次全国农业普查数据显示，2016年中国农业生产经营人员中55岁及以上的人员占比高达33.9%，农业劳动力老齡化会直接引起农村人力资本和物质资本投入比例的变化，不可避免地对农业经营产生影响。……