史琛 金涛 陈春兰 杨秉臻 李欣

摘要：为指引粮食增产动力转换，以省级粳稻产区为测评对象，基于全国农产品成本收益统计资料，运用固定窗口Malmquist指数法，分析中国粮食连年丰产期粳（2004-2018年）稻全要素生产率（TFP）增长来源。结果显示：2004年以来，伴随全国粳稻生产要素投入结构的变化，粳稻单产实现波动增长，南北两大粳稻主产省投入产出模式分化明显;这一期间全国粳稻TFP的增长主要通过技术进步实现，后半期（2011-2018年）TFP增速明显高于前半期（2004-2010年）。省际差异上，2004-2018年，除河南省外，各粳稻主产省份TFP都实现了增长，且增长也大多来自技术进步的贡献;东北稻区以黑龙江省的TFP增速最高，长江中下游稻区则以安徽省TFP增速最高，江苏省TFP增速次之。最后，依据后半期TFP增长与技术进步和技术效率的关联关系，进行类型分区，为分类指导粳稻实现内涵式增产提供参考。

关键词：全要素生产率;粮食生产;粳稻;时空变化

中图分类号：S511.2+2文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4440（2020）06-1575-08

Abstract：To guide the dynamic transformation for increasing grain yield， the province-scale production area was taken as evaluation object， based on the national agricultural product cost-benefit statistics， the growth of total factor productivity （TFP） of japonica rice and its growth sources were analyzed during the successive high-yield period of grain production in China by using the fixed-window-Malmquist index. The results indicated that with the change of input structure of production factors， yield of japonica rice showed a fluctuating growth during the past 15 years from 2004 to 2018， while the input-output models of two major producing provinces in the north and the south were significantly different. During the period of 2004-2018， the growth of TFP in japonica rice was mainly achieved through technological progress， and the TFP growth rate in the second half（2011-2018） was significantly higher than that in the first half（2004-2010）. TFP in the major japonica rice producing provinces except Henan province increased from 2004 to 2018， and the increase was mainly due to the contribution of technological progress. The highest growth rate of TFP in northeast region occurred in Heilongjiang province， while the highest in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was Anhui province， followed by Jiangsu province. In conclusion， according to the relationship between TFP growth and technical progress and technical efficiency in the second half， the types were distinguished to provide reference for productivity promotion of japonica rice.

Key words：total factor productivity;grain production;japonica rice;temporal and spatial variation

人口大國要确保粮食安全，根本上取决于粮食生产的发展状况，粮食安全是关系国家经济运行和人民生产生活的重大事件[1-2]。中国是世界上最大的稻米生产国和消费国，水稻历来是中国最重要口粮作物，水稻生产高度依赖于水土资源以及资本密集投入[3-5]。当前中国农业正处于转方式、调结构和转换增长动力的攻关期，面对日益趋紧的资源环境约束，推动水稻生产力的质量变革、效率变革，关键是增长动力要由主要依靠物质要素投入，转到依靠科技进步和组织创新，提高全要素生产率，走内涵式现代农业发展道路。……