孟祥莉 袁勤俭

〔摘要〕[目的/意义]期望确认理论是研究传统商业领域中消费者满意度的基础理论，被引入IS领域后也积累了一定的研究成果。对其在IS领域应用现状的梳理有助于发现现有研究存在的问题，并为未来的研究提供有价值的方向。[方法/过程]本文通过对国内外相关文献的搜集和整理，归纳了现阶段研究的侧重点，并从完善研究框架、丰富研究成果的角度提出展望。[结果/结论]研究发现，IS领域应用期望确认理论的研究多以确认后阶段为核心，探讨模型在不同研究场景中的适应性，对确认前阶段和意愿向行为转化过程的关注则较少。同时，所构建的模型也未能针对信息系统产品的特点体现差异性。未来的研究可基于完整的期望确认模型开展，通过多角度理解事后态度拓宽应用场景，或借助细分的期望维度，并根据信息系统产品的特殊性，构建多层次的期望确认过程，提升研究的细致度和深入度。

〔关键词〕期望确认理论；持续使用意愿；持续使用行为；信息系统；文献述评

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2018.09.026

〔中图分类号〕G202〔文献标识码〕A〔文章编号〕1008-0821（2018）09-0169-09

The Application and Prospects of Expectation Confirmation

Theory in the Field of Information ScienceMeng Xiangli1Yuan Qinjian2*

（1.School of Management and Engineering，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210008，China；

2.School of Information Management，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210023，China）

〔Abstract〕[Purpose/Significance]Expectation confirmation theory is the basic theory to study consumer satisfaction in the traditional business field.After being introduced into the field of IS，it also accumulated many research results.To find out the problems of existing research is helpful to provide valuable direction for future study.[Method/Process]By conducting a detailed literature review，this paper summarized the research focus of current stage and proposed corresponding suggestions for improving the research framework and enriching the research results.[Result/Conclusion]The study found that most of the studies focused on the post-confirmation phase，exploring the adaptability of the model in different scenarios，with less attention to the pre-confirmation phase and the willingness-to-behavior transformation process.At the same time，the research model also failed to reflect the characteristics of information system products.Future research could be based on the complete expectation confirmation model and broaden the application scenario through diversified connotation of attitude.Also，it was recommended to conduct a deep research by exploring the subdivision of expectation and building a multi-level confirmation process considering particularity of information system products.

〔Key words〕expectation confirmation theory；continuance intention；continuance behavior；information system；literature review

期望確认理论（Expectation Confirmation Theory）源于20世纪70年代学界对消费者满意度的关注，并由美国学者Richard L Oliver在1980年研究满意度与期望及期望不一致程度的关系时系统地提出[1]。该理论模型在时间上覆盖了使用前和使用后两个阶段（见图1）。消费者在购买产品或服务前形成初始期望（Expectation），并以此为参照，与购买使用后对产品或服务的感知绩效（Perceived Performance）进行对比，得到期望的确认水平（Confirmation），而后依据期望的确认水平形成购后态度，并最终影响其再购买意愿。……