王振伟　杨瑞泓　汪晓春

摘要：基于对湖北省5 422个示范户的调查，运用二元Logistic回归模型，研究农业示范户对基层农技推广绩效的感知及影响因素。结果表明，农业示范户对基层农技推广满意度的主要影响因素影响力从大到小依次为是否掌握主要产业应用技术>是否接受技术培训>接受入户指导次数>物化补贴是否落实>主要产业收入是否增加，示范户带动周边农户数量对其满意度的影响不显著。从农业示范户对各影响因素的绩效感知看，示范户对是否接受技术培训和是否掌握主要产业应用技术的绩效感知十分敏感；示范户对技术员入户指导次数的绩效感知比较敏感，技术员入户指导次数最好在6次以上；对物化补贴是否落实和主要产业增收的绩效感知并不敏感，农业示范户最在意的是其获得的农业技术而并非获得多少实物补贴；示范户对带动周边农户发展的绩效感知亦不敏感，带动周边农户的最佳数量为10～20户。

关键词：基层农技推广；农业示范户；绩效感知；Logistic回归；湖北省

中图分类号：F324.3 文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2018）15-0118-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2018.15.029 開放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Research on the Performance Perception and Influence Factors of Grassroots Agricultural Technology Extension——Based on An Investigation of 5 422 Demonstration Households in Hubei Province

WANG Zhen-weia，YANG Rui-hongb，WANG Xiao-chuna

（a. College of Politics & Law and Public Administration； b. Faculty of Business， Hubei University， Wuhan 430062， China）

Abstract： Based on an investigation of 5 422 demonstration households in Hubei province， the perception and influence factors of agricultural demonstration households on performance of grassroots agricultural technology. The results showed that the main influence factors of agricultural demonstration households' satisfaction with grassroots agricultural technology（from the largest to smallest in turn）were：Whether to master the main industrial application technology>Whether to receive the technically training>the number of accepting technicians' indoor guidance>Whether the materialized subsidy is implemented>Whether to increase the main industrial income， and the effect of surrounding farmer-driving number by the demonstration households was not significant on their satisfaction. From the performance perception of agricultural demonstration households to various influence factors， the performance perception of demonstration households was very sensitive to whether they accept the technical training and whether they master the application technology of main industry； the performance perception to the number of technicians' indoor guidance was sensitive， and preferably more than 6 times； When the performance perception was not sensitive to whether they implement the materialized subsidy and increase the main industrial income， indicating what the agricultural demonstration households concerned most was the agricultural technology and not how much In-kind subsidies they received； and the performance perception of demonstration households was not sensitive to whether they lead the development of surrounding farmers， the optimal surrounding farmer-driving number was 10～20 households.

Key words： grassroots agricultural technology extension； agricultural demonstration households； performance perception； Logistic regression； Hubei province

基層农技推广体系是国家科教兴农战略的重要组成部分，是农业生产者学习和应用先进科学技术的重要载体，也是农业技术通往田间地头、走进千家万户的桥梁[1]。自2005年以来，中国便实行“农业科技人户”的示范工程，经过十几年的发展，取得了明显成效。国家农业部发布的数据表明，“十二五”以来，中国农业科技整体水平大幅度提高，农业科技进步贡献率由2010年的52%提高到2015年的56%以上。中国当前……