车 敏，阿如旱

(内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010019)

准格尔旗土地利用碳排放效应及空间格局分析

车 敏，阿如旱*

(内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010019)

本文运用土地利用变更数据、影像数据、能源消耗数据、社会经济统计数据，依据土地利用碳源/碳汇理论，结合区域实际特点，利用碳排放系数法和能源消耗法对准格尔旗的土地利用碳排放量进行估算，并进行时序变化特征分析。并引入碳排放风险指数指标，采用普通克里格方法，结合运用GIS对准格尔旗碳排放风险的空间分布规律进行分析。结果表明：(1)碳排放量整体呈现上升趋势，13年间共增长了872.62万吨，其变化经历了四个阶段。(2)建设用地和耕地是主要的碳源，林地和草地是主要的碳汇，二者的碳排放(吸收)量均呈现增加的趋势，其中建设用地的碳排放量对碳排放总量的贡献最大，并且与研究区碳排放量的变化趋势基本吻合。(3)从空间上看：碳排放风险指数在不断增大，碳排放风险为负的区域在慢慢减少，碳排放风险为正的区域越来越大，碳排放风险指数值处于较大的区域主要集中在准格尔旗薛家湾镇、沙圪堵镇和大路镇，大多都为城镇用地，碳排放风险指数值处于较小区间的区域，主要为远离城镇的地方及周边的一些林地和水域。

土地利用；碳排放；空间格局；准格尔旗

Abstract：This paper uses the data of land use change, image data, energy consumption data and social economic statistical data, on the basis of land utilization of carbon sources and sinks theory, combined with the actual characteristics of the region, and it uses the carbon emission coefficient method and energy consumption method to estimatethe carbon emission temporal variation characteristics. And introduced the index of carbon emission risk , using ordinary Kriging method, combined with GIS, the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon emission risk of land use of Jungar banner. The results show that: (1)land use carbon emissions of Jungar bannerin the mass presented the trend of growing, the number of carbon emissions was totally creeping 872.62 10000-ton during this 13years, the changes has gone through four stages.(2) construction land and farmland is the main carbon source, forest land and grassland are the main carbon sequestration,andthe carbon emission (absorption) of the two shows an increasing trend, among them, the carbon emission of construction land is the largest contribution to the total carbon emissions, and is consistent with the trend of carbon emissions in the study area. (3) on the temporal and spatial patterns: carbon emission risk index is increasing,thearea of carbon emission risk is negative gradually reduced, the area of carbon emission risk is positive is more and more big, carbon emission risk index value in larger areas are mainly concentrated on the town of Shagedu road and Xuejiawan Town, mostly for urban land, carbon emission risk index value in a small area, mainly for some local and surrounding forest lands and waters from the town of the Jungar banner.

Keywords:Land use；Carbon emission；Spatial pattern；Jungar banner

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