谭偲凤，陶建平，蔡勋，黄琦

（华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心，湖北 武汉 430070）

我国农业保险市场供给侧结构变动的门限效应分析

谭偲凤，陶建平*，蔡勋，黄琦

（华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心，湖北 武汉 430070）

中国农业保险实施中央财政保费补贴以来，市场供给侧结构发生较大程度改变，探究农业保险市场供给侧结构的演变趋势和其市场发展的阶段性特征，有利于农业保险市场机制的完善。基于2007-2015年省际数据构建面板门限模型，分析农业保险市场供给侧结构变动与农业保险发展水平之间的非线性特征，探讨供给侧结构变动对农业保险发展的影响。结果表明，我国农业保险市场供给侧结构对农业保险发展存在非线性的双重门限效应，门限值将各个省份按市场结构类别划分为三种: 市场集中度水平较低区域（≤0.784 1）、中等区域（0.784 1-0.982 7）、较高区域（≥0.982 7），其农业保险密度的增长系数分别为-0.448 4、-1.777 4、-32.142 9。而大部分省份农业保险市场供给侧结构整体上呈现市场集中度由高向低的变化趋势，表明市场供给侧结构变动即市场集中度下降促进了农业保险市场发展。因此，适度开放农业保险市场，增强经营主体的效率；开发满足不同类型农户保险需求的农业保险产品，促进农业保险业务多元化发展；加强农业保险市场的监管，促进有序竞争将是我国农业保险发展的方向。

农业保险；保险市场；供给侧结构；门限效应；面板数据

Abstract：The supply-side structure of China’s agricultural insurance market has witnessed a dramatic variation since the implementation of the national premium subsidy policy. It is beneficial in ameliorating the market mechanism of agricultural insurance to study the evolution trend of supply-side structure and the periodical characteristics of market development of the agricultural insurance market. Based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2015, this paper developed a panel threshold model, analyzed the nonlinear characteristics amid the supply-side structural variation of agricultural insurance market and the development level of agricultural insurance, and explored the impacts of the supply-side structural variation on the development of China’s agricultural insurance. Results show that the supply-side structure of China’s agricultural insurance market imposed some nonlinear dual threshold effects on the development of agricultural insurance, dividing the provinces into 3 groups via the market structure∶ low concentration area (≤0.784 1),medium concentration area (0.784 1-0.982 7), and high concentration area (≥0.982 7). In addition, the evolution of market concentration of supply-side structure of agricultural insurance market of most provinces are downward trending,indicating that the decline of supply-side structural variation, or market concentration, facilitates the development of agricultural insurance market. Accordingly, this paper suggests to moderately open the agricultural insurance market to improve the operating efficiency of individuals, to develop diverse agricultural insurance products to cover diverse demands of different groups, and to strengthen the supervision of the agricultural insurance market to facilitate orderly competition.

Key words：agricultural insurance; insurance market; supply side structure; threshold effects; panel data

农业保险承担着分散风险和保障农户收入的作用，是国家支农的一种重要手段。……