郑志丹+郑研辉

摘 要：基于2013年中國健康与养老追踪调查数据，本文在IV-Oprobit模型的基础上，引入子女数量和城镇居民平均工资作为工具变量以克服家庭代际经济支持的内生性问题，实证检验了人口老龄化加速背景下，“社会养老”模式和 “养儿防老”模式如何对老年人的身体健康和生活满意度产生影响，两者之间是否存在替代或者协同效应。实证结果表明：总体而言，家庭代际经济支持由老年人的身体健康状况决定，并且两者呈现出显著的负相关关系，同时它还将对老年人的生活满意度产生积极的影响；进一步的分析发现，家庭代际经济支持对高龄老年人的身体健康发挥了增益作用，而低龄老年人所获得的家庭经济供养则与其健康状况负相关；此外，子女的日常照料使得父母的身体健康和生活满意度双双提升；社会正式支持中仅城镇职工养老保险能够提升老年人的生活满意度，而参加新农保和新医保将会显著提升家庭代际经济支持水平，从而间接促进老年人的身体健康和生活满意度。由此可见，“养儿防老”和“社会养老”呈现出协同促进效应，而非替代效应。

关键词：养儿防老；社会养老；代际经济支持； 协同效应

中图分类号：C913.6 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-4149（2017）04-0063-14

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.04.007

Re-examine Based on the Endogenous of Intergenerational Economic Support

ZHENG Zhidan1， ZHENG Yanhui2

（1. Economic College， Hebei University， Baoding 071000， China；

2. School of Sociology and Population Study， Remin University，Beijing 100872， China）

Abstract：Based on the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2013， this paper introduces children number and average wage level of urban residents as instruments to overcome the endogenous problem of family intergeneration support. Using the IV-Oprobit model， this paper empirically examines how the family intergeneration support network and social support network affect the health

and life satisfaction of the old people. Are there substitutional effect or synergistic effect between family support and social support？ The empirical results indicates that the family intergenerational support is determined by the health of the elderly and they present a significant negative relationship. Meanwhile， it has a positive impact on their life satisfaction. The further analysis indicate that the family intergenerational support improve the health of advanced age old people. And the family intergenerational support of lower age old people is negatively related with their healthy condition. In addition， daily care of the children lead parents health and life satisfaction both ascend. Only the endowment insurance of the urban worker can improve the elderly life satisfaction，but the participation of the new agriculture insurance and health insurance will significantly promote the intergeneration economic support and then promote the health and life satisfaction of the old people. Therefore， there is a significant synergistic effect rather than substitution effect between family support and social support.

Keywords：

family intergeneration support； social support； intergenerational economic support； synergistic effectendprint

一、引言

人口老龄化已成为当今世界最为突出的社会问题之一，但与西方自发的人口转变过程不同，我国老年人口的大规模、快速增长则是计划生育政策的加速效应，经济……