乔如娟 千庆兰

摘 要：随着信息技术的发展，先进制造业与现代服务业成为制造业与服务业未来的发展方向，两者的耦合度能反应制造业与服务业的相互作用和影响。根据2004—2013年东莞市先进制造业与现代服务业的相关统计数据，运用灰色关联度方法，测算 “两业”构成要素间的关联度以及近十年间的耦合度变化，并将其与全国25个主要城市的先进制造业与现代服务业的耦合度变化进行对比分析。研究结果表明：东莞市“两业”组成要素具有中等或较高的关联性； 在2004—2013年期间，东莞市“两业”耦合度属于磨合发展阶段；“ 两业”耦合度十年间的波动变化在区域内部一定程度上具有相似性。关键词：先进制造业；现代服务业；灰色关联度；耦合度 中图分类号：F 427

文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2017）06-0635-06

Change of the Coupling Degree between Advanced Manufacturing

and Modern Services in Dongguan during 2004—2013

QIAO Ru-juan，QIAN Qing-lan

（School of Geographic Science，Guangzhou University，Guangzhou 510006，China）

Abstract：With the development of information technology，advanced manufacturing and modern services has become the future development direction of manufacturing and services.The coupling degree can reflect the interaction and influence between advanced manufacturing and modern services.Taking Dongguan city as the object，according to the statistics of Dongguan advanced manufacturing industry and modern services in 2004—2013，using the grey relational degree method，the relational degree between the components of the “two industry” and the change of coupling degree in the past ten years are calculated，and the coupling degree of the advanced manufacturing and the modern services in the 25 major cities of China are compared and analyzed.The results show that：The “two industry” composed of elements relational degree in Dongguan has a medium or high correlation.During the period from 2004 to 2013，the coupling degree of the “two industry” in Dongguan is in the amelioration.The fluctuation of the two industry coupling degree in 10 years is similar in the region.Key words：advanced manufacturing；modern services；grey relational degree；coupling degree

0 引 言东莞作为中国和世界的制造业名城，具有雄厚的制造业基础。近年来，面临国际金融危机和内部成本上升的双重压力，其传统制造业亟待转型升级。先进制造业包括在行业、空间、市场等方面具有高度集中的新兴制造业和应用先进的技术和管理手段的部分传统制造业[1]。现代服务业是具有信息和知识密集、商业模式新颖、服务和管理方式智能化的一种现代化的服务业[2]。它包括从传统产业中演化出来的新型服务业和实现信息化发展的传统服务业[3]。总之，先进制造业与现代服务业（以下称“两业”）都具有知识信息相对密集、技术相对先进的特点，是产业高级化的表现。……