秦炳涛 陈建熊

摘 要：由于经济增长，产业结构和空气污染间密切相关，因此研究三者之间的动态关系对促进上海市的可持续发展具有重要意义。文章选取了1995—2015年上海市经济增长，产业结构和空气污染的相关数据，建立VAR模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法，对上海市经济增长，产业结构和空气污染之间的相互影响机制和动态关系进行了研究。研究表明，上海市经济增长确实加剧了空气污染且具有滞后作用；产业结构对经济增长短期内呈现负向作用而长期则呈现为正向作用，产业结构的调整有利于抑制上海市的空气污染；从方差分解结果上看，经济增长对空气污染的方差贡献度较小，而空气污染对经济增长方差贡献度较大，产业结构对经济增长和空气污染的方差贡献度都比较小，反之，经济增长和空气污染对产业结构的方差贡献度较大。关键词：VAR模型；空气污染；经济增长；产业结构中图分类号：F 061.5 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2017）06-0610-05

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Economic

Growth，Industrial Structure and Air Pollution in Shanghai

——Basd on VAR Model Empirical Analysis

QIN Bing-tao，CHEN Jian-xiong

（School of management，University of Shanghai for Science and Technology，Shanghai 200237，China）

Abstract：Economic growth，industrial structure and environmental pollution are closely related to each other，so it is of great significance to study the dynamic relationship between the three to promote the sustainable development of Shanghai.Based on the related data of the economic growth，industrial structure and air pollution of 1995—2005 in Shanghai，the paper established the model of VAR and used the method of impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the mutual influence mechanism and dynamic relationship between the economic development，industrial structure and air pollution of Shanghai City.The study found that Shanghais economic growth has indeed increased air pollution and has a lag effect.The industrial structure has a negative effect on the economic growth in the short term but has a positive effect in the long term，and the adjustment of industrial structure is helpful to restrain the air pollution in Shanghai.From the results of variance decomposition，the contribution of economic growth to air pollution is small，but the contribution of air pollution to economic growth is larger.The contribution of industrial structure to economic growth and air pollution is small.On the contrary，the contribution of economic growth and air pollution to the industrial structure is larger.

Key words：VAR model；air pollution；economic growth；the industrial structure

0 引 言近年来，中国大多数城市都被雾霾所笼罩，上海市的空氣质量也长期处于中度甚至重度污染。雾霾中含有的PM 2.5污染物对人体伤害极大，给人们的身体健康造成了极大危害。2013年开始，中国环保部开始对74个重点城市进行环境监测。从2015年的监测结果来看，上海市的PM 2.5年平均浓度达到53 μg/m3，远高于世界卫生组织公布的PM 2.5的安全标准。空气污染依旧较为严重。与此同时，雾霾问题也是一个经济问题，反映出了环境与经济之间的不协调。……