周勇 周念彤

摘 要：根据环保部2014年5月13号至2017年10月21号空气质量监测数据中的PM 2.5浓度，以及2015年、2016年和2017年10月21号前PM 2.5浓度与全年浓度的关系，预测了北京2017年PM 2.5濃度。根据专家提供的北京市2017年9月1号形成较重雾霾的污染气团运行轨迹，比对邢台和北京雾霾气团之间的关系，确认气团为PM 10和PM 2.5而不是SO2.通过江苏部分不采暖城市在京津冀采暖季时间段（简称采暖季）PM 2.5浓度与非采暖时间段（简称非采暖季）差异对比，可以证明北京已经不受周边城市采暖季燃煤的显著影响，自身也不具有因采暖带来的PM 2.5显著上升的特点。通过济南市部分国控监测点的数据对比，可以证明一般性的散煤燃烧或小散乱污企业的PM 2.5不具有远距离传播的特点，而电厂和钢铁厂产生的可吸入颗粒物（PM 10）、细颗粒物（PM 2.5）或超细颗粒物（PM 1.0）（简称大气颗粒物）不具有沉降的特点。一年四季影响北京空气质量的是域外的这些不沉降的大气颗粒物。通过对北京PM 2.5的4种来源划分及其减少的潜力分析，说明实现2017年PM 2.5浓度目标具有挑战性。阐述了在没有煤炭燃烧的北京，同样需要尽快确认湿法脱硫是产生次生PM 2.5的最大外部来源。

关键词：雾霾；PM 2.5；细颗粒物；北京；预测

中图分类号：X 773；F 290 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2017）06-0573-09

The Analysis of Causes of Haze in Beijing Based on Big Data

and Prediction of PM 2.5 Concentration in 2017

ZHOU Yong1，2，ZHOU Nian-tong3

（1.Qilu University Of Technology，Jinan 250353，China；

2.Shandong Academy of Sciences，Jinan 250014，China；

3.University of California，San Diego，California，USA）

Abstract：

According to the PM 2.5 concentration data of MEPs air quality monitoring data from May 13，2014 to October 21，2017，and the relationship between PM 2.5 concentration and annual concentration before 2015，2016 and October 21，2017，the concentration of PM 2.5 in Beijing in 2017 was predicted. According to the formation of the heavier-haze polluted air mass movement trajectory in Beijing，September 1，2017，provided by experts，we compared the relationship of haze air mass between Xingtai and Beijing，ultimately，it was confirmed that the air mass was PM 10 and PM 2.5 instead of SO2.By contrasting the difference of PM 2.5 concentration of non-heating part of cities in Jiangsu between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region during the heating season period（heating season for short）and non-heating period （non-heating season for short），it can be proved that Beijing has not affected by the coal-fired during heating season in surrounding cities significantly，it does not have the characteristic of a significant increasing in PM 2.5 due to heating compare to southern part of Jiangsu.Through the comparison of data from some state-controlled monitoring stations in Jinan city，it can be proved that PM 2.5 in general scattered coal combustion or small scattered pollution enterprises does not have the characteristics of long-distance transmission. Respirable particulate matter（PM 10），fine particulate matter （PM 2.5） or ultrafine particulate matter （PM 1.0） （atmospheric particulate matter） produced by power plants and steel mills do not have the characteristics of subsidence to sink to the ground. These non-settling atmospheric particulates from extraterritorial areas affected Beijing throughout the year. Based on the analysis of the four sources of PM 2.5 and its potential reduction in Beijing，it is concluded that it is a challenge to complete the target of PM 2.5 concentration in 2017. It is also import to be aware of that wet desulfurization is the largest external source of secondary PM 2.5 in Beijing without coal combustion.

Key words：Smog；PM 2 .5；Fine particulate matter；Beijing；Prediction

1 2017年北京PM 2.5预测

国家出台的空气污染防治措施“大气十条”确定的北京2017年PM 2.5浓度目标是60 μg/m3.这是京津冀及周边雾霾治理的标志性指标，能否实现或多大程度上实现是全社会都关心的问题。

按照2014年5月13号至2017年10月21号环保部空气污染监测数据（按照每个小时的各种污染物浓度数值，个别缺少的数据忽略），可以对2017年全年的PM 2.5数值进行预测。……