李志刚+王灿+祖超+郑维全+鱼欢+杨建峰

摘 要 利用趋势分析和Mann-kendall检验统计方法对海南省万宁市兴隆旅游经济区近50年（1961～2010年）降水量、气温和相对湿度等气象因子进行趋势分析和突变分析。结果表明：兴隆地区年平均温度呈明显上升趋势，变化倾向率约0.288℃/（10 a）；年降水量变化整体变化呈下降趋势，但未能通过显著性检验；年平均相对湿度的变化整体上表现出下降趋势，变化倾向率为-1.052%/（10 a）；兴隆地区年平均气温的自20世纪70年代起开始呈现升高趋势，到1990年左右发生了突变，但年降水量、相对湿度未发现突变点。综上所述，兴隆地区近50年来气候变化趋势与全国范围基本一致，增温幅度略高于全岛水平；而降水量变化趋势与海南岛相反，呈现出微弱的线性下降趋势。

关键词 海南兴隆 ；气候变化 ；趋势分析 ；突变分析 ；Mann-Kendall检验

中图分类号 P467 文献标识码 A Doi：10.12008/j.issn.1009-2196.2017.06.010

Analysis of Climate Trend and Abrupt Climate Change from

1961 to 2010 in Xinglong， Wanning， Hainan

LI Zhigang WANG Can ZU Chao ZHENG Weiquan YU Huan YANG Jianfeng

（Spice and Beverage Research Institute， CATAS / Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources Utilization of Spice and Beverage Crops， Ministry of Agriculture / Hainan Key Laboratory of Genetic Improvement and Quality Regulation for Tropical Spice and Beverage Crops， Wanning， Hainan 571533）

Abstract The data on climatic factors such as precipitation， temperature and relative humidity in the past 50 years （1961～2010） in Xinglong， Wanning， Hainan Province were used to analyze the climate trend and abrupt climate change by using the method of trend analysis and Mann-kendall test. The results showed that the annual mean temperature was significantly increased with the linear trend rate of 0.288 Co（10a）-1. The annual precipitation tended to decrease but did not pass the significance test. The annual average relative humidity showed a downward trend， with a trend rate of -1.052%o（10a）-1. The annual average temperature started to show a rising trend from 1970s， but an abrupt climate change occurred in around 1990. No abrupt climate change was observed in the annual precipitation and relative humidity. It was concluded that the climate trend in the past 50 years in Xinglong was generally consistent with that in the whole country. The annual average temperature was slightly higher in Wanning than in the whole Hainan Island， and the annual average precipitation trend in Wanning was opposite to that in the whole Hainan Island and showed a weak linear downward trend.

Keywords Hainan Xinglong ； climate change ； trend analysis ； abrupt change analysis ； Mann-Kendall test

近年來，气候变化规律成为中国气象界普遍关注的热点问题，许多科技人员针对我国气候变化规律开展研究，并取得一定进展[1-6]。关于海南岛的气候变化特征也有过一些研究：周茂华等[7]研究了海南岛各季和年的平均气温和降水量的统计特征；吴慧等[8]利用小波分析对全岛月平均气温和降水量的多层次时间尺度结构作了详细分析；陈小丽等[9]采用Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了海南岛近42年气候变化特征。类似的研究均针对海南全岛范围进行大尺度的年际动态比较分析，但岛内各县由于地理位置和地形的不同，形成的一些典型气候类型区的气候变化规律特征尚未见报道。……