摘 要：中国在夏季奥运会田径、竞技游泳、团体等具有较高竞争力项目上处于弱势地位，凭借“软金牌”项目的累积效应，位列奥运会“第一集团”的地位。中国在近8届奥运会跳水、体操、举重等优势项目上获得152枚金牌，占中国金牌总数75.6%。美国在近7届奥运会田径、游泳、团体项目上获得182枚金牌，占美国金牌总数67.4%。中国与美国奥运金牌的结构特征表现出巨大差异。中国奥运战略面临结构性的内在矛盾及转型压力，应尽快摆脱“软金牌”路径依赖，作为未来世界体育强国的自我定位与认同，中国奥运战略的结构性转型势在必行。

关 键 词：体育管理；奥运战略；夏季奥运会；软金牌；结构性转型；中国

中图分类号：G80-05 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116（2016）05-0042-08

Abstract： China is in an disadvantageous position on higher competitive power demanded Olympic events such as track and field， competitive swimming and team events， and in a position of being listed one of the Olympic countries in “the first group” based on the accumulated effect of “soft gold medal” events. In recent 8 sessions of the Olympic Games， China won 152 gold medals on advantageous Olympic events such as diving， gymnastics and weightlifting， which is 75.6% of total gold medals won by China. In recent 7 sessions of the Olympic Games， the United States won 182 gold medals on Olympic events such as track and field， swimming and team events， which is 67.4% of total gold medals won by the United States. There are tremendous differences between the structural characteristics of Olympic gold medals won by China and the United States. Chinas Olympic strategies are facing the pressure of structural intrinsic contradiction and transformation， and must break away from “soft gold medal” path dependence as soon as possible； for self orientation and identification as a sport powerful country in the world in the future， the structural transformation of Chinas Olympic strategies is imperative.

Key words： sports management；Olympic strategy；summer Olympic Games；soft gold medal；structural trans-formation；China

北京奥运会中国体育代表团取得金牌榜第一的历史性成绩，新媒体针对中国奥运战略率先发难，业界、学界积极跟进，回应社会批评与关切，围绕“需不需要金牌”[1]、“如何看待竞技体育举国体制”[2]等问题进行深刻反思。金牌多了反而不高兴，国人的抵触情绪到底源于什么？按照笼统的说法，那就是欧美发达国家流行（职业化）的奥运项目我们都不行，欧美发达国家不流行（业余性）的奥运项目我们都可以。这个说法当然有失偏颇，过于夸大不同奥运项目的国际竞争力差异这一事实，但也不失为一种看待问题的角度，一种警示性的反思。既然存在奥运项目的国际竞争力差异，那么奥运金牌的“成色”就有“软”、“硬”之分。“软金牌”之“软”是相对于奥运会比赛项目的国际参与度而言，足球、篮球、田径、游泳等项目的国际参与度较高，奥运会国际竞争异常激烈，在这些项目上争夺金牌处于完全充分竞争的状态，谓之“硬”。……