钟炜　和瑞峰 周孜哲 高辉 武玉培

摘要： 政府招商引资在促进经济发展的过程中起到了举足轻重的作用。招商引资主导产业是招商引资最前沿阵地，推动了区域经济大发展。政府能否正确地确定招商引资主导产业关系到招商引资工作的成效。本文基于改进的主成分分析法建立了政府招商引资主导产业确定机制模型，通过对比传统主成分分析法评价结果与改进的主成分分析法评价结果，并结合天津市河北区招商引资实际工作情况，得出政府招商引资主导产业较为优化的确定机制，可为地方政府招商引资工作主导产业的确定提供参考。

Abstract： Government investment plays a pivotal role in the process of promoting economic development. Investment promotion and capital introduction leading industry is the forefront of investment promotion and capital introduction， promoting the regional economic development. Whether the government can correctly determine the investment promotion and capital introduction leading industries is related to the investment promotion and capital introduction work results. In this paper， based on improved principal component analysis， the determining mechanism model of government investment promotion and capital introduction leading industries is established. Through comparing the evaluation results of the traditional principal component analysis and the improved principal component analysis， and combined with the practical work of Tianjin Hebei district investment promotion and capital introduction， the ralatively optimized mechanism to determine the government investment promotion and capital introduction leading industry is obtained， which can provide reference for the determination of the leading industry in the local government investment promotion and capital introduction work.

關键词： 改进的主成分分析；政府招商引资；主导产业；确定机制

Key words： improved principal component analysis；government's investment promotion and capital introduction；leading industries；determining mechanism

中图分类号：F061 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2016）07-0011-05

0 引言

新常态下，政府招商引资是促进区域经济发展的生命线。招商引资主导产业在区域经济发展中占有较大比重，对其它产业和整个区域经济的发展具有强大的辐射和带动作用。区域经济的发展，要按照招商引资产业结构演化的规律，合理选择招商引资的主导产业，建立以主导产业为核心、各产业紧密结合、特色鲜明的政府招商引资产业体系。

美国经济学家罗斯[1]首次提出主导产业扩散基准，将扩散效应与主导产业的确定关联起来，认为扩散效应强的产业应作为主导产业，为主导产业的研究与发展奠定了理论基础。日本产业经济学家筱原三代[2]明确提出了主导产业选择的两个重要基准：“生产率上升基准”和“收入弹性基准”，首次回答了怎么选择主导产业。……