袁静

摘要根据2000～2013年产销两地价格数据，运用分布滞后动态模型对赣南脐橙生产者价格和消费者价格之间的传导关系进行分析。结果表明：赣南脐橙生产者价格与消费者价格之间存在一定的相互影响，价格双向传递是顺畅的；赣南脐橙生产者价格变动会引起当年消费者价格同方向变动，反之亦然，且赣南脐橙生产者价格对下一期的消费者价格仍存在正向影响；从影响系数来看，赣南脐橙消费者价格对当年生产者价格的影响系数为1.073 1，大于赣南脐橙生产者价格对当年消费者价格的影响系数0.272 9，表现出明显的非对称性。为完善赣南脐橙的价格传导机制，提出了建立完善的信息发布平台、设计合理的利益分配机制等对策建议。

关键词赣南脐橙；价格传导；分布滞后动态模型

中图分类号S-9文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2016）04-284-03

Study on Price Transmission Relationship between Production and Marketing of Gannan Navel Orange

YUAN Jing （School of Business， Gannan Normal University， Ganzhou， Jiangxi 341000）

AbstractAccording to prices in production and marketing place during 2000-2013， using distributed lad dynamic model， the price transmission relationship of Gannan navel orange was analyzed. The results showed that there was a certain interaction between the producer price and consumer price of Gannan navel orange， the price of two-way transmission was smooth. The changes of producer price would cause consumer price changes in the same direction and vice versa. The positive effects still existed on consumer prices in the next period. As for the influence coefficient， the influence coefficient of Gannan navel orange consumer prices on the producer prices was 1.073 1， which was bigger than influence coefficient 0.272 9 of Gannan navel orange producer prices on consumer price， showing obvious asymmetry. In order to perfect price transmission mechanism of Gannan navel orange， several countermeasures were proposed， including establishing perfect information release platform， designing reasonable benefit distribution mechanism.

Key wordsGannan navel orange； Price transmission； Distributed lag dynamic model

《國务院关于支持赣南等原中央苏区振兴发展的若干意见》确定赣南建设成“世界最大的优质脐橙产业基地”的发展目标。目前，在脐橙丰产且产量创历史新高的产季，赣南脐橙销售价格在全国各大市场却一路走跌，经常面临着“价低”“卖难”的困境，果农丰产不丰收，遭受较大的经济损失，严重影响了果农的生产积极性。价格是联系赣南脐橙供需的重要纽带，关系到脐橙供应链上各个不同主体的利益，尤其是供应链前端广大脐橙种植户的切身利益，是关系果农实际收益的“三农”问题。因此，研究赣南脐橙价格如何沿着脐橙供应链条传递、传导的效应如何、传导是否顺畅等问题，对于产业部门采取措施以保障脐橙价格稳定，确保整个脐橙产业的平稳可持续发展，农民增收具有重要的意义。……