张晓彤 董明

摘要为分析常用减排政策在肉牛养殖业中的有效性，探讨了肉牛饲喂过程中的温室气体减排问题。首先利用联合国政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）提供的饲料成分排放因子测算方法，估算肉牛个体在育肥过程中的温室气体排放量；在此基础3种减排手段，建立了考虑温室气体排放的饲喂决策模型。数值试验表明，价格补贴最具可行性，且有助于降低养殖场运营成本；碳排放限额约束具有最优的单位减排成本，但需要制定完善的政策以避免权力寻租等不端行为；碳税的减排效果最为明显，但将极大地增加养殖场运营成本，可行性最差。

关键词肉牛饲喂；减排政策；优化模型

中图分类号S-9文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2016）04-262-06

Analysis of Common Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies in the Cattle Breeding Industry

ZHANG Xiaotong1， DONG Ming2， ZHANG Yufeng3（1. SinoUS Global Logistics Institute， Shanghai Jiao Tong University， Shanghai 200030； 2. Antai College of Economics and Management， Shanghai Jiao Tong University， Shanghai 200030； 3. Birmingham Business School， University of Birmingham， Edgbaston， United Kingdom）

AbstractIn order to analyze the effectiveness of common greenhouse gas（GHG） reduction policies in the cattle breeding industry， the problem of reducing GHG emissions was discussed. The GHG emission factors of beef cattle were calculated based on the approach proposed by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）， then the total emissions during fattening was estimated. Furthermore， the optimization models of feeding decision considering GHG emission quota， carbon tax， and subsidy were built respectively. Numerical tests showed subsidy is the most practicable in reducing emissions and it would aid farms by reducing cost； GHG emission quota has the minimal unit cost of emission reduction； however， relative polices should be completed in order to avoid misconducts； carbon tax is not feasible because the overall cost of farms would increase significantly， even though its emission reduction is the most obvious.

Key wordsBeef cattle feeding； Polices of reducing GHG emissions； Optimization models

溫室气体的过度排放将导致全球气温升高、海平面上升、耕地退化等一系列的全球性环境危机，2015年12月召开的第21届联合国气候大会一致通过《巴黎协定》，为全球应对气候变化行动做出了安排。据食品与农业组织统计，全球反刍动物每年产生的甲烷约占人为甲烷排放量的28%[1]，有效地减少反刍动物饲养过程中的温室气体排放具有重要意义。但以往的研究着重于对养殖业的温室气体排放总量或排放强度进行评估，或者从宏观角度对减排策略进行探讨，鲜有研究将二者统一起来。

常用的温室气体排放评估方法包括体外试验法、IPCC法、生命周期评估法。赵一广[2]通过试验提出了日粮采食量、日粮营养组成对肉用绵羊温室气体排放量的回归方程。……