银峰 刘洋 李猛

摘要以大型外浮顶原油储罐为例，基于火灾爆炸事故的多米诺效应分析方法，分析雷击诱发罐组多米诺火灾连锁事故场景，给出雷击储罐导致多米诺火灾效应的人员伤亡风险计算方法，提出适用于油品储罐的雷电灾害风险评估模型。结果表明，雷击导致的浮顶罐密封圈电火花是引起油罐火灾事故的主要原因；雷击诱发的储罐火灾可通过热辐射形式作用于邻近储罐，使得周边人员生命安全风险大幅上升；在大型油罐的雷击灾害风险评估中，可通过引入扩展因子的方法，将雷击事故引起的多米诺效应影响纳入评估模型之中，预测雷电灾害次生事故后果，为雷电防护设计提供服务。

关键词雷电灾害风险；油品储罐；多米诺效应；个人风险

中图分类号S429文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2016）04-229-03

Lightning Risk Assessment of Crude Oil Storage Tanks Based on Domino Effect Analysis

YIN Feng， LIU Yang， LI Meng （Lightning Protection Center of Tianjin， Tianjin 300074 ）

AbstractWith large floating roof tank as a case， the chain accident scenes of tank group caused by lightning hitting oil tanks were analyzed based on the analysis method of domino effect analysis of fire and explosion.We provided the calculation method of individual risk， and proposed the suitable model of lightning risk assessment for large scale oil tanks.Results showed that the main causation of oil tank fire accident was the electric spark of seal ring in floating roof tank.Tank fire disaster induced by lightning transported to nearby tanks through the form of thermal radiation， so that the life safety risk enhanced greatly.During the lightning risk assessment of largescale oil storage tanks， expanding factor method could be introduced so as to bring domino effects into evaluation model， to predict the secondary consequences of lightning， and to provide services for the lightning protection and engineering design.

Key wordsLightning disaster risk； Oil storage tanks； Domino effect； Individual risk

近年來，随着经济的发展和科技的进步，我国石油工业呈现规模化、园区化发展趋势[1]，大型油库、储罐日益增多，面临的雷电灾害风险也随之增大。从损害源强度而言，石油化工企业通常选址建在旷野郊区，高大罐体易成为制高点而遭受雷击。同时，企业排放的烟尘废气能影响当地气溶胶组分，加剧雷暴生成。另一方面，从承灾体易损性角度，石油化工生产、贮存的易燃易爆危险品数量和种类的增多，增加了雷击危险事故的可能性。一旦装置因雷击事故发生泄漏或爆炸事故，极易波及相邻单元和周边人员，使得危害范围进一步扩大。……