崔　苗

天津商业大学宝德学院,天津300384

河北省农村文化消费支出变动分析及预测

崔苗

天津商业大学宝德学院,天津300384

根据2002年~2013年的统计数据,文章对河北省农村文化消费支出的变动情况进行了灰色关联分析,并应用灰色预测模型、三次多项式预测模型组合建立的整合模型对河北省未来的文化消费支出发展情况进行了预测.研究结果表明:人均纯收入以及固定资产投资对农村文化消费支出影响程度较大,同时,整合模型的预测结果精度较高,误差率较低,在稳定性方面较为理想.预测结果表明未来农村文化消费支出还将呈现稳步增长的发展态势,基于此应加强政府引导作用、实施文化产业建设"走出去"战略,从而拉动河北省农村居民文化消费支出.

河北;文化消费支出;灰色预测;灰色关联度;对策建议

[Abstract]The research object is about rural cultural consumption spending problem in Hebei Province.This article investigates the changes of Hebei rural cultural consumption spending,performs grey correlation analysis based on statistical figures from 2002 to 2013,and forecasts future cultural consumption spending developments with the help of integration model,which is built upon both grey prediction model and cubic polynomial prediction model.Study results show that rural cultural consumption degree is influenced more by per capita net income and fixed-asset investment.In the meantime,integration model has been proved of greater accuracy,lower error rate and higher stability. The results also present a steady-state growth of future rural cultural consumption spending.According to these results,the article puts forward suggestions of how to stimulate Hebei Province rural cultural consumption spending in the future.

[Key words]Hebei;cultural consumption spending;grey prediction;grey correlation; suggestions

经济学家Chenery曾指出当人均GDP达到3000美元时,文化消费支出将会快速增长.根据《中国统计年鉴》显示,河北省人均GDP在2013年达到6270.67美元,目前已进入快速增长期.2013年召开的中国文化产业指数发布会上指出,我国文化消费支出潜在规模约为4.7万亿,占居民消费总支出的30%,发展潜力巨大.但与城市文化消费蓬勃发展相对比的是,"十一五"期间,农村人均文化消费支出增长仅为城镇居民的28.82%.13年来,河北省农村人均值总增长额度仅为城镇的39.28%.由此可见,河北省农村文化消费支出增长与城镇相比差距赫然在目,这无疑表明,城乡文化消费发展严重失……