城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价*

角志达宋瑞▲刘星材

(北京交通大学交通运输学院北京 100044)

摘要为评价城市轨道交通车站内发生拥挤踩踏事故的风险，对国内典型的城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故进行统计分析，并运用事故树理论对事故致因进行定性分析和研究。结合事故树分析结果建立城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故的评价指标体系，运用数据包络法(DEA)建立拥挤踩踏事故的风险评价模型。以北京海淀黄庄地铁站为例进行风险评价模型的应用与分析。结果表明，有75%的评价单元达到了DEA有效的标准，且非DEA有效评价单元的相对安全效率指数均在0.9以上。评价结果与车站实际情况基本相符，验证了评价模型的准确性与实用性。

关键词交通安全；风险评价；数据包络分析；城市轨道交通；拥挤踩踏事故

中图分类号：U121文献标志码：A

收稿日期：2014-10-28修回日期：2015-01-24

作者简介：第一角志达(1991-)，硕士研究生.研究方向：交通运输安全管理工程.E-mail:14120948@bjtu.edu.cn

通讯作者：▲宋瑞(1971-)，博士，教授.研究方向：交通运输安全管理工程.E-mail:rsong@bjtu.edu.cn

Risk Assessment of Crowd Crushing and Tramping

Accidents at Metro Rail Transit Stations

JIAO ZhidaSONG RuiLIU Xingcai

(SchoolofTrafficandTransportation,BeijingJiaotongUniversity,Beijing100044,China)

Abstract:In order to assess the risk of crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations, the typical crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations in China were analyzed. The theory of fault tree was used to qualitatively analyze the cause of accidents. The indicator system of the crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations was proposed and developed in combined with the results of fault tree analysis. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used in the establishment of risk assessment model of crowd crushing and tramping accidents. Huangzhuang Subway Station of Haidian, Beijing was selected as a case study to test and analyze the risk assessment model. The results show that 75% of the decision-making units reach the DEA efficient standard, and the relative safety efficiency indices of the decision-making units, which are none-DEA efficiency, are more than 0.9. The test results are generally consistent with the real situation, which proves that the proposed risk assessment model is practical.

Key words: traffic safety; risk assessment; data envelopment analysis; metro rail transit; crowd crushing and tramping accidents

*国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(批准号：2012CB725403)资助

随着城市轨道交通的快速与大规模发展，拥挤踩踏事故等一系列安全问题也随之日渐凸显，不仅造成了巨大的财产损失，更严重影响城市轨道交通系统的正常运营。目前，拥挤踩踏事故已成为城市轨道交通风险评价的研究热点。

理论研究方面，国内有很多学者已取得较为显著的研究成果，朱昌锋[1]运用熵分析进行了评价指标体系的提取与优化，并建立了城市轨道交通运营安全评价的DEA模型。……