中图分类号：N8 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001－9499（2025）04-0054－05

Spatiotemporal Variations and Driving Mechanisms of Wetlands in the Wei River Tributary，Gansu Section of the Yellow River Basin

LI YijingZHOU Luqiong ZHANG Chao** （Gansu Forestry Voctech University，Gansu Tianshui741020）

AbstractThis study utilized Landsat remote sensing imagery （1990-2020）and multi-source geographic datato construct an object-oriented classification and landscape patern indices analysis framework.By integrating geographic detectors and structural equation modeling （SEM），we systematicallyrevealed the spatiotemporal evolution paterns and driving mechanisms of wetlands.The results indicate：（1）The wetland area in the study region decreased by 12.6% （annual average 0.42% ），，showing a spatial differentiation characteristic of \"upstream shrinkage-midstream fragmentation-downstream anthropization\"，with 2010 identified as an ecological tipping point;（2）Agricultural expansion （q=0.48） and precipitation reduction （q=0.36） were the primary driving factors，while policy interventions reduced the degradation rate by 18% （20 after2015;（3）Theecosystem service value loss was 32O million yuan/year，and the carbonstorage decline wassignificant（ ）.The study proposes that the protection of plateau valley-type wetlands should prioritize ensuring ecological flow （≥40% of the multi-year average）and establishing community co-management models，providing a scientific basis for precise wetland governance in the Yellow River Basin.Methodologically，this research achieves an innovative breakthrough in multi-model coupling for driving mechanism analysis.

Key wordstelow river basin; wei river tributary; wetland evolution; spatiotemporal variations; driving mechanisms

黄河流域生态保护国家战略背景下，渭河支流甘肃段作为西北干旱区重要生态屏障，其湿地承载着涵养水源、保持生物多样性等重要功能，是西北干旱区生态安全的关键屏障。然而，近30年受气候变化及高强度人类活动叠加影响，该区域湿地面积缩减率达 12.6%（1990-2020） ，生态退化引发的生物栖息地破碎化、调蓄能力下降等问题日益凸显，严重威胁流域可持续发展，对流域生态安全构成威胁。厘清湿地时空演变规律及其驱动机制，成为实现黄河流域“精准治污、科学修复”目标的迫切需求。

当前研究多聚焦黄河三角洲等下游湿地，对上游高原河谷型湿地的特殊性关注不足。尽管遥感技术（如Landsat时序解译）为湿地监测提供了基础支撑，但现有研究仍存在三方面局限：一是驱动机制解析多停留于单因子相关性分析，缺乏自然－人为因子交互效应的定量刻画；二是政策干预效果评估多采用定性描述，未结合突变点检测等时序分析方法；三是高原区地表－地下水文耦合特征对湿地退化的影响机制尚未明晰。这些问题导致现有保护策略针对性不足，难以满足《黄河流域生态环境保护规划》提出的“分区管控、系统治理\"要求。

文章以渭河支流甘肃段为对象，集成多源遥感数据、地面监测与社会经济统计资料，构建“时空演变-驱动解析－政策响应\"研究框架。通过融合地理探测器、结构方程模型与生态系统服务评估方法，重点解决以下问题：（1）高原河谷湿地退化的空间分异性规律；……