[摘要] 目的 分析2012—2023年南宁市良庆区手足口病流行病学及病原学特征。方法 采用描述性流行病学方法描述手足口病的流行分布特征，对手足口病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2012—2023年南宁市良庆区累计报告手足口病19 715例，不同年份发病率比较，差异有统计学意义（Plt;0.01）。城区累计报告病例最多，发病时间主要集中在4～10月，6月龄～"""""" 5岁儿童高发，以散居儿童、托幼机构儿童为主。2012—2023年累计报告实验室诊断病例588例，以其他肠道病毒检出率最高，EV71检出率相对较低。预测结果显示，2025年南宁市良庆区手足口病发病水平较2023年有所下降。结论 南宁市良庆区手足口病发病率较高，6月龄～5岁儿童高发。建议加强疫情监测力度，持续开展病原学监测工作。

[关键词] 手足口病；监测；流行病学特征；模型预测

[中图分类号] R181.3" """"[文献标识码] A """""[DOI] 10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.20.010

Monitoring analysis and model prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District， Nanning City from 2012 to 2023

WEI Shu^1，2， WANG Fengyi¹， HUANG Zhenbo²， ZHAO Renyang²， WU Caiyan²， LIU Chunli²， JIANG Junjun^3，4

1.School of Public Health， Guangxi Medical University， Nanning 530021， Guangxi， China; 2.Department of Public Health， the Second Nanning People’s Hospital， Nanning 530031， Guangxi， China; 3.School of Public Health， Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Control Research， Guangxi Medical University， Nanning 530021， Guangxi， China; 4.Institute of Life Sciences， Collaborative Innovation Center of Regenerative Medicine and Medical Bioresource Development and Application Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry， Guangxi Medical University， Nanning 530021， Guangxi， China

[Abstract] Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand， foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Nanning City， Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD， and to predict the incidence trend of HFMD. Results From 2012 to 2023， Liangqing District of Nanning City reported a total of 19 715 cases of HFMD. The incidence rates varied significantly across different years， with statistically significant differences （Plt;0.01）. The urban area reported the highest number of cases. The disease primarily occurred from April to October， with the highest incidence among children aged 6 months to 5 years， mainly among children in daycare and preschools. From 2012 to 2023， a total of 588 cases were diagnosed through laboratory tests， with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses， and a relatively lower detection rate of EV71. Predictions indicate that the incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District of Nanning City will decrease in 2025 compared to 2023. Conclusion Incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District， Nanning is high， especially among children aged 6 months to 5 years. It is suggested to strengthen the epidemic surveillance， continue to carry out pathogen surveillance.

[Key words] Hand-foot-mouth disease; Monitor; Epidemiological characteristics; Model prediction

手足口病（hand， foot and mouth disease，HFMD）是由多种肠道病毒引起的儿童常见传染病，5岁以下儿童多发^[1-2]。HFMD临床表现以手、口、足、臀等部位出现皮疹或疱疹为主，一般预后良好^[3]。少数患儿可转为重症，易并发脑干脑炎、肺水肿和心肺功能衰竭等神经系统和呼吸系统疾病，病死率较高^[4]。HFMD病原体包括肠道病毒71型（enterovirus 71，EV71）、柯萨奇病毒A组16型（Coxsackie virus A16，Cox A16）和部分埃可病毒等，不同病原体的毒力、致病性均可发生变化，目前引起个别省份轻症和重症的HFMD原体已发生迁移^[5-6]。近年来，自回归移动平均（auto-regressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型已广泛应用于HFMD发病趋势预测，季节性自回归移动平均模型（seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average，SARIMA）是ARIMA模型的扩展，常用于有季节效应和周期性变化的数据，预测精度较高，是政府公共卫生决策的重要依据。……