彭继增 彭桃强 凌娇娇

[摘 要：文章基于2011—2020年长三角地区41个城市面板数据，运用双向固定模型实证分析消费需求提升对FDI流入的影响及作用机制。研究发现：消费需求提升对FDI流入具有显著的正效应，但该正效应在经济发展水平较高城市、长三角城市群城市、生产型城市以及高水平消费需求城市中更为显著，且消费需求提升有助于促进更高质量的FDI流入；产业结构升级和信贷规模扩大在消费需求提升与FDI流入之间存在部分中介效应；消费需求与FDI具有显著的空间集聚特征，消费需求提升能够促进本市及相邻城市FDI流入。本研究对加快构建新发展格局、推进高水平对外开放具有重要的现实意义。

关键词：新发展格局；消费需求；FDI；空间集聚；高水平对外开放

中图分类号：F724；F832.6    文献标识码：A文章编号：1007-5097（2024）06-0032-12 ]

Can the Expansion of Urban Consumption Demand Under the New Development Pattern Drive FDI Inflows？ An Empirical Analysis of the Yangtze River Delta Region

PENG Jizenga，b，PENG Taoqianga，LING Jiaojiaoa

（a. School of Economics and Management；

b. Center for Economic and Social Development of Central China，Nanchang University，Nanchang 330031，China）

Abstract：Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2020，this paper empirically analyzes the impact and mechanism of rising consumer demand on FDI inflow by using a two-way fixed model. The study finds that：The consumption demand enhancement has a significant positive effect on FDI inflow，but the positive effect is more significant in cities with higher economic development level，cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration，production-oriented cities and cities with high level of consumption demand. Moreover，the increase of consumption demand is beneficial to promote higher quality FDI inflow. The industrial structure upgrading and credit scale expansion have partial mediating effects between consumer demand enhancement and FDI inflow. There is a significant spatial agglomeration characteristics between the consumer demand and FDI，the consumption demand enhancement can promote FDI inflow in this city and its neighboring cities. The research of this paper has important practical significance for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-level opening-up to the outside world.

Key words：new development pattern；consumption demand；FDI；spatial agglomeration；high-level opening-up to the world

一、引 言

近年来，世界经济和政治形势发生深刻变化，全球产业链和供应链加速调整，为保障国家经济的安全稳定，我国经济逐渐转向以内需为主的发展态势。2022年，党的二十大报告指出，要“加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”“着力扩大内需，增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用”。可见，新发展格局对国内循环提出更高要求，而作为国内大循环的战略基点，消费需求直接关联国内大循环，是畅通双循环的关键力量。事实上，自2008年金融危机以来，国外市场的萎靡不振使中国出口导向型经济发展模式弊端显现，以外促内的局面不再具有可持续性［1］。……