穆月英 张精

摘 要：文章基于时变动态阈值面板随机前沿模型，对2002—2021年保护性耕作政策不同演进阶段的粮食生产技术效率进行估算，并将不同模型的估算结果进行比较分析，探究粮食生产技术效率水平的阶段性特征和时空分布格局。研究发现：基于时变阈值面板的随机前沿生产函数模型对生产效率的估计更准确；在多种投入要素中，土地和资本对粮食生产的贡献较大，但要素配置结构仍有优化空间；在政策的不同演进阶段，制度改革推动技术效率波动上升，资源禀赋差异是技术效率区域差异化的主要诱因。应不断完善环境友好型政策的引导与支持，健全地方自主实践机制；因地制宜推广环境类技术；持续深化农村土地制度改革，有效激发土地活力。

关键词：环境友好型政策；粮食生产效率；保护性耕作；时变阈值；阶段性；地域性

中图分类号：X322；F326.11；F323.3  文献标识码：A文章编号：1007-5097（2024）06-0001-11

Research on the Efficiency and Differentiation Characteristics of Grain Production

in the Evolution of Environmentally Friendly Policies：

Validation Based on Conservation Tillage Policy

MU Yueying，ZHANG Jing

（College of Economics and Management，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100083，China）

Abstract：The essay estimates the technical efficiency of grain production at different stages of the evolution of conservation tillage policies from 2002 to 2021，using a time-varying dynamic threshold panel stochastic frontier model. Then a comparative analysis of estimated findings from different models is conducted to investigate the stage-specific features and spatiotemporal distribution patterns of technical efficiency in grain production. Findings： The utilization of a stochastic frontier production function model，utilizing a time-varying threshold panel，yields more precise estimations of production efficiency. Among various inputs，land and capital notably play pivotal roles in enhancing grain production efficiency，yet there is still potential for further optimization in the allocation of factors. Throughout different phases of policy evolution，institutional reforms have been instrumental in influencing fluctuations in technical efficiency. Moreover，disparities in resource endowments emerge as the primary determinant of regional variations in technical efficiency. Continuous enhancements are necessary in guiding and supporting environmentally friendly policies，and refining the mechanism for local autonomous practice. It is imperative to promote environmental technologies tailored to specific local conditions and to further deepen rural land system reform in order to effectively enhance land productivity.

Key words：environmentally friendly policies；grain production efficiency；conservation tillage；time-varying threshold；stages；regional characteristics

一、引 言

农业高质量发展是乡村振兴战略的题中之义，同时也是建设农业强国的基本内涵，但在实践中，生产环境不断恶化成为制约其高质量发展的主要短板之一。我国现在是世界上最大的农药和化肥使用国（余威震等，2019）［1］，面临着农业面源污染、土壤退化和水土流失等问题（郧文聚，2015）［2］。与此同时，耕地利用中耕作层遭受破坏、地力受损严重，限制了耕地粮食生产能力的稳步提升。在当前耕地保护和生态环境保护刚性约束下，实施环境友好型政策不仅能有效缓解耕地资源过度开发和生态环境恶化，还能促进农业可持续发展，确保粮食安全。……