唐梦诗 袁淑娜 余文刚 施琦 侯天泽 吴君楠 刘子毓

摘  要：紅茴砂是姜科茴香砂仁属多年生草本植物，我国仅在海南地区有自然分布，是具有很高药用价值的濒危植物。为了解红茴砂在未来气候变化下的潜在适生区及其主要环境影响因子，以期对红茴砂的保育提供科学指导，将45条红茴砂分布位点数据与20个环境因子相结合，运用最大熵生态位模型MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件模拟了当前气候和未来2050年RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种不同气候条件下红茴砂在中国的潜在分布区，并分析影响红茴砂分布的主导环境因子。结果表明：当前气候条件下，红茴砂适生区总范围在18°～32° N、27°～122° E，面积约为1.24×106 km2，主要集中分布在海南、贵州、福建、广东、广西、云南等地;影响红茴砂地理分布的主导环境因子为最湿月降水量、最暖季度降水量、年均温度变化范围、最冷月份最低温、海拔和最热季度均温，累计贡献率达87%;在未来2050年RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种不同气候情景下，红茴砂适生区域丧失面积均达到95%以上，潜在分布区缩小到云南、四川、西藏、贵州和台湾这5个省区，新增区域主要在西藏东南部和四川中南部，同时潜在总适生区和高适生区的质心有向西北方迁移的趋势。

关键词：红茴砂;最大熵生态位模型;中国潜在适生区;气候变化;预测

中图分类号：Q948      文献标识码：A

Abstract： Zingiberaceae Etlingera littoralis （J. Koenig） Giseke is a endangered perennial herb with high medicinal val-ue，the natural distribution in China is Hainan. Predicting the potential suitable areas and key environmental factors are critical to the conservation of E. littoralis. Based on the data of 45 current distribution points of E. littoralis in global and 20 environmental factors the key environmental factors and the potential suitable areas under current and future two scenarios （2050 s RCP 2.6， 2050 s RCP 8.5） in China were dtudied using the MaxEnt and ArcGIS， and the potential distribution changes of E. littoralis in China was analyzed， using the SDM toolbox of ArcGIS software， Under the present climatic conditions， E.littoralis is mainly distributed from North latitude 18° to 32°， and East longitude from 27° to 122°， with a total suitable area about 1.24×106 km2. The current potential distribution areas are Hainan， Guizhou， Fujian， Guangdong， Guangxi， Yunnan， Sichuan， Chongqing， Tibet， Hunan， Hubei， Taiwan. Dominant envi-ronmental factors affecting the distribution of E. littorali. were precipitation of the wettest month， precipitation of the warmest quarter， temperature annual range， mean temperature of the coldest month， altitude and mean temperature of the warmest quarter， with a cumulative contribution rate of 87%. Under future climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by the 2050 s， the loss of potential suitable areas of E. littoralis would be up to 95%， and the potential distribution areas would be limited to Yunnan， Sichuan， Tibet， Guizhou and Taiwan. The increased areas are in southeastern Tibet and south-central Sichuan. The centers of total suitable areas and most suitable areas would be moved towards northwest.

Keywords： Etlingera littoralis （J. Koenig） Giseke; MaxEnt; potential suitable area in China; climate change; predic-tion

DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2021.11.040

物种分布区是物种重要的生态学和进化学特征，可作为物种濒危状况的一个指示特征[1]，而气候是影响物种分布的最主要因素之一，气候变化可以直接或间接……