曹卫华 白福兴 成康 李鑫 关佳乐

摘  要：探究中超聯赛不同比赛情境下球队传球表现与比赛胜负的关系。以2019中超联赛187场非平局比赛为研究对象，以比赛胜负为结果变量，以21项常规传球技术统计指标和9项社会网络分析指标为预测变量，采用独立样本t检验、曼·惠特尼U检验、判别分析、曲线拟合等方法，探讨不同实力球队在主客场对阵时影响比赛胜负的关键传球因素。研究结果：（1）传中、直塞、横传、短传、本方半场传球、对方半场传球成功率、前场30 m区域传球等指标是影响比赛胜负的重要变量，具有低中心性、低网络密度和低凝聚力指数特征的球队，更容易取得比赛胜利。点度中心度、特征向量中心度、网络密度、凝聚力指数与比赛胜负存在曲线相关关系。（2）不同实力球队在主场和客场面对不同对手时，影响比赛胜负的显著性指标有所不同。（3）不同比赛情境下的判别函数方程都具有显著性，并有较高正确分类率。研究认为，社会网络分析为足球比赛表现分析提供新的研究视角。了解不同比赛情境下球队传球表现对比赛胜负的影响，对足球比赛与训练具有较强实践指导意义。

关  键  词：竞赛与训练;中超联赛;比赛情境;传球;比赛胜负关系;运动表现分析

中图分类号：G808文献标志码：A文章编号：1006-7116（2021）06-0130-09

The relationship between passing performance and match win-loss for teams from Chinese Football Super League under the different match situations

CAO Wei-hua，BAI Fu-xing，CHENG Kang，LI Xin，GUAN Jia-le

（School of Physical Education，Shaanxi Normal University，Xian 710119，China）

Abstract： To explore the relationships between passing performance and match win-loss for teams from Chinese Football Super League （CSL） under the different match situations， taking the wining and losing matches （N=187） of the 2019 season in CSL as the research object， and passing performance indicators （21 routine passing indicators and 9 network metrics） as predictable variables， match result （win， loss） as outcome variables， using the methods of the chi-square test， independent samples t-test， Mann-Whitney U-test， curve fitting and discriminant analysis to discuss the key passing factors affecting the win or loss for games to different teams versus their rivals at home or away situation.The research shows that： （1） Among the conventional passing indexes， the cross pass， medium pass， through pass， cross pass to the penalty area， short pass and pass in the area of 30m from the opposing goal line were important variables affecting the matches results. There was a curvilinear correlation between the match outcome and some network metrics（e.g. point centrality， eigenvector centrality， network density and cohesion index.）Teams with low centrality， low network density and cohesion index values were more likely to win the game. （2） In the home and away situation， the key pass performance index differed from teams with different levels of competition. （3）Using the passing performance index to discriminate the result of football games under different competition situations， the classification accuracy was higher. The study holds that social network analysis provides a new research perspective for football match performance， and understanding the influence of passing performance on the outcome in different game situations has very much significance in practice.

Keywords： competition and training;Chinese Football Super League;match situation;passing;match win-loss relationship;sports performance analysis

足球运动表现分析的研究实质是对足球运动项目特征与规律的一种科学的认知活动[1]。近年来，足球运动表现分析主要从足球比赛实战出发，利用热成……