彭慧 刘璐 姜钧耀 孟含威 王翊人 李光吉

摘 要：采用定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法研究洪水与潮位遭遇，首先采用定性分析法确定洪水与潮位遭遇可行方案集，再利用洪水与潮位遭遇的组合风险概率模型定量计算各种可行方案集的风险率，统筹考虑防洪安全及工程投资，最终确定洪水与潮位遭遇最优方案。以小清河为例的研究表明：洪潮遭遇可行方案集为50 a一遇洪水遭遇5～50 a一遇潮位，最优组合为50 a一遇洪水遭遇20 a一遇潮位;潮洪遭遇可行方案集为50 a一遇潮位遭遇3～140 a一遇洪水，最优组合为50 a一遇潮位遭遇20 a一遇洪水;超标准洪水遭遇高潮潮位的发生风险较低，高潮位遭遇中小洪水的发生风险较高。

关键词：洪水与潮位遭遇;定性分析;Copula 函数;组合风险率模型;小清河

中图分类号：P333 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.08.008

引用格式：彭慧，刘璐，姜钧耀，等.感潮河段上游洪水与河口潮位遭遇研究[J].人民黄河，2021，43（8）：44-47.

Abstract： The qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation were put forward to obtain the reasonableencounter scheme between floods and tides. First the qualitative analysis was used to obtain the feasible schemes. Then the probabilistic models were built based on Copula function. Finally the optimal scheme was adopted by balancing the safety and investment. The application of Xiaoqinghe River illustrates that the optimal schemes are 50-year floods encountering 20-year tides and 50-year tides encountering 20-year floods. Using the two schemes to analyze water level respectively， the maximum levels are used to river regulation design. Moreover， the typical year analysis results show that the risk of excess criteria floods encountering tides is infrequent and the risk of excess tides encountering criteria floods is frequent.

Key words： encounter between floods and tides; qualitative analysis; Copula function; probabilistic models; Xiaoqinghe River

1 引 言

感潮河段水位受上游洪水和下游潮位顶托双重影响，在防洪除涝工程设计中，合理确定洪水与潮位遭遇是首先需要解决的问题[1]。目前洪水与潮位遭遇的研究主要集中在风险分析领域。刘曾美等[2-3]提出组合风险率模型来定量研究洪潮遭遇风险率;曾强等[4]针对感潮河段实测流量资料缺乏问题，采用降水资料代替流量资料，提出治涝风险、同现风险和组合风险并进行洪水与潮位遭遇分析。

洪水与潮位相关性较弱[2]，二者遭遇通常有多种情况，已有研究大多凭经验设定遭遇方案。……