唐家凯 丁文广 李玮丽 刘兴德

摘 要：采用黄河流域九省（区）2004—2018年统计资料，从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个方面构建水资源承载力评价指标体系，运用熵权法和层次分析法获得各指标权重，利用综合评价模型评价黄河流域水资源承载力，并利用障碍度函数定量诊断影响黄河流域水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因素。研究结果表明：2004—2018年，黄河流域水资源承载力呈现缓慢上升趋势，整体向良好方向发展，空间上呈现明显的波动特征且差异性明显，但省（区）间的差距呈现逐年变小趋势;黄河流域水资源承载力受水资源的过度开发利用和生态环境破坏双重制约，人均水资源量、水资源开发程度是制约黄河流域九省（区）水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因素。建议有关部门完善黄河流域用水方式转变和水资源管理方面的制度，推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。

关键词：水资源承载力;熵权法;层次分析法;障碍度函数;黄河流域

中图分类号：TV213.4;TV882.1 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.07.014

引用格式：唐家凯，丁文广，李玮丽，等.黄河流域水资源承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].人民黄河，2021，43（7）：73-77.

Abstract： According to the data of the nine provinces and administrative regions in the Yellow River basin from 2004 to 2018， this paper constructed an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity from the four aspects of water resources， society， economy， and ecological environment. In addition， the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process were applied to generate comprehensive index weights; the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin was evaluated by using the comprehensive evaluation model; and the major obstacles to the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity of the basin were quantitatively identified by the obstacle degree function. The results show that： a）from 2004 to 2018， the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin presents a slow upward trend， with an overall orderly pattern; b） obvious spatial fluctuation characteristics and differences are found， while the gaps between the investigated provinces and regions decrease on a yearly basis; c）the water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River basin has been impaired by the following major factors of over-exploitation and utilization of water resources and destruction of the ecological environment， as well as the amount of water resources per capita and degree of water resources development. Based on the results， relevant authorities should improve the transformation of water use patterns and institutions of water resources management in the Yellow River basin， thus promoting the ecological protection of the Yellow River basin and achieving high-quality development.

Key words： water resources carrying capacity; entropy weight method; analytic hierarchy process; obstacle degree function; Yellow River basin

水資源承载力评价是促进区域生态环境与社会经济健康、协调、可持续发展的基础，是对水资源在时间和空间上的一个度量尺度[1]。长期以来，黄河流域面临自然生态脆弱、水环境污染、水资源短缺等愈来愈紧迫的水问题挑战[2]。继2019年黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略提出后，黄河流域发展再次成为国内外关注的热点[3-4]。……