王仲梅 任艳粉 杨丹

摘 要：目前黄河宁蒙河段的凌汛灾害比较严重，急需对黄河冰凌灾害影响因子进行系统全面的分析，并凝练凌汛灾害预警指标，建立完善的凌汛预警指标体系。采用资料分析归纳方法分析凌汛灾害影响四大因子，选取黄河宁蒙河段4个典型水文站1957—2020年的凌情资料，分析其气温、水位、流冰密度及冰厚的特点，确定气温、水位、流冰密度、冰厚为预警指标，根据资料分析结果量化预警指标，确定相应的预警阈值，划分蓝、黄、橙、红4个预警等级，为制定科学有效的应急预案、减少经济损失提供依据。

关键词：成因分析;凌情特点;指标体系;预警等级;黄河

中图分类号：U456.3+3;TV882.1 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.07.009

引用格式：王仲梅，任艳粉，杨丹.黄河宁蒙河段凌汛灾害预警指标体系研究[J].人民黄河，2021，43（7）：45-50.

Abstract： At present， the ice flood disaster in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River is relatively serious， so it is urgent to make a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the impact factors of the ice flood disaster and compact the ice flood disaster early warning index. This paper adopted data analysis and induction method to analyze the four factors affecting the flood season disaster， the data of four typical hydrological stations in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River from 1957 to 2020 were selected， the characteristics of air temperature， water level， ice density and ice thickness were analyzed and determined the temperature， the density of water， ice， ice thickness as early warning indexes. According to the results of data analysis， quantitative warning indicators were used to determine the corresponding warning threshold， dividing into four warning levels of blue， yellow， orange and red， which could provide basis for making a scientific and effective emergency plan and reducing economic loss.

Key words： cause analysis; characteristics of ice flood; indicator system; warning level;Yellow River

黃河是我国凌汛出现最频繁的河流，其中宁蒙河段最为严重，这是由它特殊的地理位置、水文气象条件、河道特性决定的。在全球变暖的大环境下，近年来黄河凌汛威胁有所缓解，但是极端天气频繁发生，自1986年以来内蒙古河段已发生6次较严重的凌汛决口[1]，防凌工作已经成为黄河防汛的重要内容。以往建立的黄河宁蒙河段凌汛预测预警系统主要是对该河段封开河日期、流凌日期的预报，提前做出凌汛危险程度的中期预测或短期预警[2]，并未针对凌汛影响因子形成全面的预警体系。目前迫切需要对黄河冰凌灾害影响因子进行系统全面的分析，并凝练凌汛灾害预警指标，建立完善的凌汛预警指标体系。……