钱春花 李明阳 郑超

摘要： 森林生物量是反映自然生态环境的重要指标，分析苏南经济发达区域森林生物量的时空变化，并探讨其驱动因素，对于经济发达地区的森林经营规划和生态保护具有重要意义。本研究以江苏省的重点林区句容市为研究对象，以2007年、2014年森林资源规划设计调查数据和林地变化调查数据为主要数据源，分别采用克里金、反距离权重、样条函数3种插值模型进行森林生物量估测运算，在此基础上进行时空变化、驱动因素分析。研究结果表明，在3种插值模型中，克里金模型的性能最高，反距离权重模型次之，样条函数模型的性能最低。2007-2014年，研究区高森林生物量和中森林生物量的林分面积比例呈下降趋势，低森林生物量林分面积比例呈增加趋势。空间聚类分析结果表明，2007-2014年，研究区森林生物量高的林分主要分布在句容市北部、东南部边缘地带以及东北部地区，而森林生物量低的林分主要分布在中南部平原农业区。2007-2014年，研究区大部分乡镇森林生物量呈小幅度下降趋势，森林生物量的空间聚集程度呈增强趋势。句容市森林生物量时空变化的主要原因是森林干扰指数的增加以及城镇化进程引起的林地变化。

关键词： 森林生物量;時空变化;驱动因素;苏南丘陵山区

中图分类号： S757.2  文献标识码： A  文章编号： 1000-4440（2021）02-0382-07

Abstract： Forest biomass is an important indicator to reflect the natural ecological environment. It is of great significance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of forest biomass in economically developed areas of southern Jiangsu and explore the driving factors for forest management planning and ecological protection in economically developed areas. Jurong City of the key forest region in Jiangsu province was chosen as the study object， forest resource planning data and survey data of forest land change in 2007 and 2014 were collected as the main information source. Three forest biological interpolation models of Kriging， inverse distance weighting and spline function were applied to estimate the forest biomass， followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal changes and driving factors. The research results showed that， among the three interpolation models， the Kriging model showed the highest performance， followed by the inverse distance weighting model， and the spline function showed the lowest performance. From 2007 to 2014， the proportion of forest stands area with high and medium biomass in the study area decreased， and the proportion of forest stands area with low biomass increased. Results of the spatial cluster analysis showed that from 2007 to 2014， the forest stands with high forest biomass in the study area were mainly distributed in the north， southeast edge and northest of Jurong City， while forest stands with low biomass were mainly distributed in the agricultural areas of the central and southern plains. From 2007 to 2014， the forest biomass of most townships in the study area showed a slight decreasing trend， and the spatial aggregation of forest biomass showed a strengthened trend. The main reasons for the spatiotemporal change of forest biomass in Jurong City are the increase of forest disturbance index and the change of forest land type caused by the process of urbanization.

Key words： forest biomass;spatiotemporal changes;driving factors;hilly and mountainous areas in southern Jiangsu

21世纪以后，中国长江三角洲各大城市郊县纷纷撤县设市，大量人口从经济落后的偏远乡村向城市中心聚集，引起了城市土地利用、土地覆盖方式的巨大变化[1]。……