何军 冯雅婷 李亚龙 罗文兵 张伟 赵树君 陈鹏

摘要 运用基尼系数法、Hurst系数法从年际降雨序列和年内降雨序列两方面分析四湖流域降雨的变异性，探究变化环境下四湖流域降雨的变化特征。结果表明，四湖流域的年际降雨序列为无变异，但大部分地区的年内降雨基尼系数序列呈现出一定的变异性，其中荆州、潜江站为中变异，洪湖站为弱变异，监利站无变异，年内降雨分配不均匀主要体现在4—8月的降雨量较大，且12月和1月降雨量较少。

关键词 Hurst系数;基尼系数;降雨;变异性;四湖流域

中图分类号 S271;TV93 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2021）09-0206-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.09.056

Abstract The Gini coefficient method and Hurst coefficient method were used to analyze the rainfall variability of the Four-lake Watershed from interannual and annual rainfall series， and explore the change characteristics of rainfall changes in the Four-lake Watershed under changing environments.The results showed that there was no variation in the interannual rainfall series in the Four-lake Watershed， and there was some variation in the annual rainfall series in most areas， among which the middle variation was in Jingzhou and Qianjiang stations， the weak variation was in Honghu station， and the no variation was in Jianli station， the uneven distribution of rainfall in the year was mainly reflected by the larger rainfall from April to August and the smaller rainfall in December and January.

Key words Hurst coefficient;Gini coefficient;Rainfall;Variability;Four-lake Watershed

IPCC（AR5）指出，氣候变化速度比预估得更快，极端事件的强度和频率也发生了明显变化[1]。在气候变化过程中，原有的水文序列可能失去了一致性，降雨事件变异尤为突出[2-4]。Hurst系数法是水文要素序列变异分析的常用方法，钱峰等[5]运用Hurst系数法对降雨侵蚀力序列进行分析，从统计学角度将降雨侵蚀力序列的变异程度分级，得到随机序列与确定性序列相组合的降雨侵蚀力序列。谢平等[6]以马口站和三水站为例，运用Hurst系数法对西北江三角洲的水文泥沙序列进行变异性分析，为西北江三角洲的航道整治和防洪决策等提供参考。周丽萍等[7]运用Hurst系数计算方法，结合GIS的空间分析，对安徽省气候的时空变化进行了研究，发现安徽省56年来气候变化存在Hurst现象，降水和气温及其持续性都存在空间差异。四湖流域地处江汉平原腹地，流域面积达11 547 km2，是湖北乃至华中地区重要的农业生产基地。……