邓楚雄 彭艳启 刘唱唱

摘要 基于1971—2017年湖南省29个气象站点的逐日温度数据，结合线性趋势分析方法和空间插值法，研究湖南省热浪和寒潮的时空分布和变化趋势。结果表明，1971—2017年湖南省一共经历了248个热浪和114个寒潮。热浪频次和天数呈现上升趋势，寒潮频次和天数呈现下降趋势。受气候变暖的影响，在1986年以后热浪天数以94.76 d/10 a的速度显著增加。由于大气环流和地形地势的影响，热浪的影响程度呈现以湘东湘南为高值中心向湘西和湘北逐渐扩散减弱的空间格局，寒潮的影响程度呈现从西北向东南逐渐增强的空间格局。熱浪和寒潮的变化趋势具有明显的空间差异。热浪在全省绝大部分地区呈现增加趋势，尤以省会长沙市附近台站最为突出和显著;寒潮的频次和天数在包括湘北、湘西和湘中的大部分地区呈现减小趋势，在湘南地区呈现增加趋势，但是所有站点的寒潮频次和天数变化趋势都不显著。

关键词 热浪;寒潮;时空特征;气候变暖;湖南省

中图分类号 P429 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2021）09-0200-06

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.09.055

Abstract Based on the daily temperature data of 29 meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1971 to 2017， combined with the linear trend analysis method and spatial interpolation method， the temporal and spatial distribution and change trend of heat waves and cold waves in Hunan Province were studied.The results showed that Hunan Province experienced a total of 248 heat waves and 114 cold waves from 1971 to 2017. The frequency and days of heat wave showed an upward trend， and the frequency and days of cold wave showed a downward trend.Affected by climate warming， the heat wave days after 1986 had increased significantly at a rate of 94.76 d/10 a.Due to the influence of atmospheric circulation and topography， the degree of influence of the heat wave presented a spatial pattern of gradually spreading and weakening from the high center of eastern Hunan to southern Hunan， and the influence of the cold wave presented a spatial pattern of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast.There were obvious spatial differences in the changing trends of heat waves and cold waves. Heat waves had shown an increasing trend in most areas of the province， especially the stations near the provincial capital Changsha City were the most prominent and significant.The frequency and number of cold waves showed a decreasing trend in most areas including northern Hunan， western Hunan and central Hunan， and an increasing trend in southern Hunan. However， the frequency and number of days of cold waves at all stations had not changed significantly.

Key words Heat wave;Cold wave;Temporal and spatial characteristics;Climate warming;Hunan Province

在自然灾害的分类中，热浪和寒潮作为极端温度事件被统计到气候自然灾害中[1]。热浪一般指连续多日的极端高温，寒潮则是指在寒冷季节里一次冷空气暴发导致的剧烈降温过程。近年来，热浪和寒潮的频繁发生已经成为影响社会经济、生态、环境和人体健康的重要问题[2-4]。热浪和寒潮期间的极端温度会导致区域的死亡率明显上升，这引起了广泛的公共卫生问题[5-7]，同时室内供暖和制冷需求的增加会极大地增大电力系统的压力和能源消耗，并引起二氧化碳排放量的增加[8-9]。……