王保云 金珠 王婷 董雯 周希 孙显辰 刘粉连

摘 要：為揭示中国人感染H7N9疫情的时空发展规律和演变规律，基于2013年至2017年人感染H7N9统计数据，分别进行时间序列和标准差椭圆分析。首先以月为时间单位分析疫情时间序列，识别疫情的高峰期和低谷期，在此基础上将整个疫情期进行阶段划分，并对各阶段的疫情变化规律进行分析。然后根据疫情病例的发生位置建立标准差椭圆，通过各阶段椭圆中心、方位角和面积大小的变化刻画疫情的扩散情况。最后，通过对3个典型区域在时间和空间上进行分析，进一步验证疫情的扩散规律。结果表明：每年12月至次年5月为疫情高发期，尤其是1月和2月，这2个月病例数占比高达51.74%;每年的9月为疫情低谷期，是疫情扩散阶段的划分点。在整个疫情期间，病例数呈上升、下降、爆发和归零的趋势;空间上，标准差椭圆的中心从湖州市向抚州市、衢州市转移，椭圆覆盖区域也由较为集中的沿海地区扩展到内陆地区，说明前期的控制措施不够得力，防控效果不明显，使得疫情出现了蔓延的趋势。后期采取了严格措施使疫情得到了有效控制。研究中国人感染H7N9的时空传播机制规律，可为中国传染病的预测与防治提供一定的理论和实践参考。

关键词：地理信息系统; 时空分析; H7N9; 禽流感; 时空特征

中图分类号：P208;R511.7 文献标识码：A

doi：10.7535/hbkd.2021yx02006

Analysis of spatio-temporal transmission characteristicsfor H7N9 infection in China

WANG Baoyun1，JIN Zhu2，WANG Ting3，DONG Wen4，ZHOU Xi2，SUN Xianchen2，LIU Fenlian2

（1.School of Mathematics，Yunnan Normal University，Kunming，Yunan 650500，China; 2.School of Information Science and Technology，Yunnan Normal University，Kunming，Yunnan 650500，China; 3.School of Foreign Languages & Literature，Yunnan Normal University，Kunming，Yunnan 650500，China; 4.Faculty of Geography，Yunnan Normal University，Kunming，Yunanan 650500，China）

Abstract：To reveal the temporal and spatial development and evolution of human H7N9 infection in China， based on the statistical data of human H7N9 infection from 2013 to 2017， time series and standard deviation ellipse analysis were performed. Firstly， the epidemic time series was analyzed with month as time unit， and the peak and trough periods of the epidemic were identified. On this basis， the whole epidemic period was divided into stages， and the epidemic change law of each stage was analyzed. Then the standard deviation ellipse is established according to the location of the epidemic cases， and the spread of the epidemic situation is described by the changes of the ellipse center， azimuth and area in each stage. Finally， through the time and space analysis of the three typical areas， the spread law of the epidemic was further verified. The results show that， the high incidence period is from December to May every year， especially in January and February. The proportion of cases in these two months is as high as 51.74%. September of every year is the low point of epidemic situation， which is the dividing point of epidemic spreading stage. During the whole epidemic period， the number of cases increased， decreased， broke out and returned to zero. Spatially， the center of the standard deviation ellipse shifts from Huzhou City to Fuzhou City and Quzhou City， and the coverage area of the ellipse also expands from coastal areas to inland areas. It shows that the early control measures are not effective enough， and the effect of prevention and control is not obvious， which makes the epidemic spread. In the later period， the strict measures had a good effect， and the epidemic situation was effectively controlled. Study the spatio-temporal transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9， can provide a theoretical and practical reference for the prediction and Prevention of infectious diseases in China.

Keywords：

geographic information system; spatio-temporal analysis; H7N9; avian influenza; spatio-temporal characteristics

禽流感是由禽类烈性感染病的病毒引起的，该病毒本身比较温和，但在传播时因基因发生重组导致其具有高致病性。……