郑建平 胡永仕

摘  要：在经济全球化的推动下，持续增长的国际贸易不仅促进了经济发展，也加强了国际贸易对港口的依赖性。如何科学、准确地衡量腹地经济发展与港口建设的时滞效应，是在城市经济发展中发挥港口及临港产业作用急需解决的问题。针对港城协同发展存在的时滞效应，基于时间序列网络相似度模型构建论证和设计时滞效应分析方法，并以上海港、宁波—舟山港和深圳港实证分析，通过构建2000～2020年腹地城市GDP和集装箱吞吐量时间序列网络，测度其网络相似度和时滞效应滞后期。研究表明：（1）时间序列网络相似度能够反映价值转化参数向量的映射关系。（2）中国三大集装箱港口腹地经济和集装箱吞吐量时间序列网络相似度均为1.00，网络结构呈现高度相似。（3）上海港、宁波—舟山港和深圳港的时间序列网络时滞效应的滞后期分别为4年、1年和4年，不同港口受到现实中政治、地理、经济等方面因素的影响，其港城协同时滞效应也有所差异。

关键词：时滞效应;港城协同;滞后期;时间序列网络;相似度模型

中图分类号：F207    文献标识码：A

Abstract： Driven by economic globalization， the ever-increasing international trade not only promotes economic development， but also strengthens the dependence of international trade on ports. How to scientifically and accurately measure the time lag effect between economic development in hinterland and port construction is an urgent problem to be solved in the development of urban economy. In view of the time-lag effect in the coordinated development of port and city， this paper constructs the demonstration and design time-lag effect analysis method based on the similarity model of time series network， and makes an empirical analysis of Shanghai port， Ningbo-Zhoushan port and Shenzhen port， and measures the network similarity and lag period of time-lag effect by constructing the time-series network of GDP and container throughput of hinterland cities from 2000 to 2020. The research shows that：（1）The similarity of time series network can reflect the mapping relationship of value transformation parameter vectors.（2）The network similarity of hinterland economy and container throughput time series of China's three major container ports is 1.00， and the network structures are highly similar.（3）The lag periods of time series network time lag effect of Shanghai port， Ningbo-Zhoushan port and Shenzhen port are 4 years， 1 year and 4 years respectively. Different ports are influenced by political， geographical and economic factors in reality， and their port-city coordination time lag effect is also different.

Key words： time delay effect; collaboration between port and city; lag period; time series network; similarity model

0  引  言

經济一体化促进了国际贸易的发展，我国约95%的国际贸易量是通过海运完成的。2020年，我国海运进出口量增长6.7%，占全球海运贸易量30%。持续增长的国际贸易给我国港口发展带来了巨大的机遇。现代港口作为海运过程中的重要枢纽，具有水路联运设备及条件供船舶进出和货物装卸，在促进国际贸易和地区经济发展中的地位和作用越加明显。……