童玉芬 阳圆 张欣欣

摘 要：国内关于特大城市人口调控政策的研究已有多年，但是这方面的政策量化分析还比较缺乏。以北京市为例，通过构建特大城市人口调控概念框架和指标体系，并收集和筛选北京市20世纪80年代中期以來涉及人口调控的相关政策文件，综合采用文献统计法和文本分析法，对北京市人口调控政策的总强度及演变规律、政策手段和措施的转变及特征等进行了量化分析。研究发现，北京市人口调控政策强度总体上呈现上升趋势，并且表现为明显的五阶段特征;人口调控政策发布的主体层次多元化且层级有所下移，基层调控的力度明显增大;人口调控政策手段已经基本摆脱依靠直接的行政管控措施为主，进入以间接手段为主、多手段并存的新阶段;人口调控措施从过去“以证控人”为主转变成“以业控人”为主，并表现为多措并举的新调控模式。最后，针对上述研究发现，得到一系列的政策启示并提出了相关的政策建议。

关键词：特大城市;人口调控政策;量化分析

中图分类号： C921  文献标识码：A   文章编号：1000-4149（2021）01-0025-12

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2021.00.001

Quantitative Analysis on Population Regulation Policies of Megacities in China：

A Case Study of Beijing

TONG  Yufen， YANG  Yuan， ZHANG  Xinxin

（School of Labor Economics/ Institute of Population Economics Research/

Population and Development Research Center， Capital University of Economics and

Business， Beijing 100070， China）

Abstract：Domestic research on population regulation and control

policies in megacities has been for many years， but lacking of the quantitative analysis of policy. Taking Beijing as an example，

this paper constructs the concept and index framework of population regulation policy in megacities

through collecting and selecting a series of policy documents related to Beijings population regulation since the mid-1980s， the paper analyzes the evolution law of Beijings population regulation policies and its means and measures with method of literature statistics and text analysis. We got those initial findings： Firstly， the policy intensity of Beijings population regulation generally shows a growing trend， and which is characterized by five stages.

Secondly， the administrative levels of policy release is diversified and moved down constantly， which result in the intensity of the grassroots control being obviously increased. Thirdly， the policy means of population regulation have basically got rid of the main dependence on administrative control measures， which entered a new stage of indirect means as the main measure and multiple means coexisting. Fourthly， the measure of population regulation policies has changed from “credentials control” to “industry control” with multiple measures coexisting. In the end， in view of the above findings， the

paper obtains a series of policy implications and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

Keywords：megacity;population regulation policies;quantitative analysis

一、引言

《人口与经济》2021年第1期

童玉芬，等：我国特大城市人口调控政策的量化研究

人口调控政策属于公共政策的一种类型，是国家或地方政府对一定区域范围内的人口规模、增长、分布、构成产生直接或间接影响的一系列政策和法规的总和。从最广义角度讲，凡是对人口变动的直接原因，如对生育、健康和死亡、迁移行为等做出的相关政策干预或调节，都可以看作是广义的人口调控。……