张云兰

摘 要：本文在基于能值理論核算广西农业绿色GDP比重的基础上，利用PLS模型研究广西农业生态经济系统安全的影响因素，再利用GM模型开展系统安全预警研究，最后为促进系统安全提出有针对性的调控策略。结果表明，2000-2019年广西农业绿色GDP增加了3.99倍，但农业绿色GDP比重从60.13%快降到47.73%，农业生态经济系统安全程度不断下降。城镇化水平和单位耕地化肥施用量两个指标对广西农业生态经济系统安全状况的负向影响较大，农业增加值占GDP比重、单位耕地农业水资源用量、农业投入强度、复种指数和单位耕地面积农业从业人员等指标的正向影响较大。2000-2019年广西农业生态经济系统安全总体上处于中警区间，即轻度不安全状态，但未来10年警情指数不断下降，如果不及时调控，系统将不断接近重警区间，即中度不安全状态。在“十四五”期间，需要通过推进新型城镇化与农业现代化协同发展、加大农业投入和新型经营主体培育力度、加强耕地保护和水土流失综合治理工程、提升农民资源节约和生态环境保护意识等调控策略，从而保障广西农业生态经济系统安全。

关键词：农业生态经济系统;农业绿色GDP比重;安全预警;广西

中图分类号：F062.2                       文献标志码：A

Research on the Safety Warning of Guangxi’s

Agricultural Eco-economic System

ZHANG Yunlan1，2

（1Forestry College，Guangxi University，Nanning，Guangxi 530004，China;

2School of Economics and Trade，Guangxi University of Finance and

Economics，Nanning 530003，China）

Abstract：Based on calculation of the proportion of Guangxi’s agricultural green GDP with emergy theory，we analyzed the factors affecting the security of Guangxi’s agricultural eco-economic system by PLS model，studied the system security early warning by GM model，and put forward some targeted control strategies to promote the system security. Result showed that from 2000 to 2019，Guangxi’s agricultural green GDP increased by 3.99 times，but its proportion fell rapidly from 60.13% to 47.73%，and the security degree of the agricultural ecological economic system declined gradually. The two indicators of urbanization level and chemical fertilizer application amount per unit area of cultivated land had great negative impact on the security of Guangxi’s agricultural ecological economic system. The proportion of agricultural added value in GDP，agricultural water consumption per unit area，agricultural input intensity，multiple cropping index，and agricultural employees per unit area had greater positive impact. From 2000 to 2019，the security of Guangxi’s agricultural eco-economic system was generally in the middle warning zone，that was，a mildly unsafe state，but the warning index would continue to decline in the next 10 years. If it was not regulated in time，the system would gradually approach the heavy warning zone，that was，a moderately unsafe state. During the “14th Five-Year Plan”，it is necessary to promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and agricultural modernization，increase agricultural investment and the cultivation of new business entities，strengthen the protection of arable land and the comprehensive management of soil erosion，and improve farmers’ awareness of resource conservation and ecological environmental protection，so as to ensure the safety of Guangxi’s agricultural ecological economic system.

Key words：Agro-ecological economic system;the proportion of agricultural green GDP;safety warning;Guangxi

农业生态经济系统是支持人类生存和发展的重要复合系统[1-3]。广西是传统农业大省，处于西南喀斯特地区，生态环境脆弱、农业资源短缺、人地矛盾突出。根据广西统计局数据，广西农业人口达1400万，但人均耕地面积仅为0.078 hm2，农业经济制约着广西乡村振兴。……