肖杨 王冠 袁淑杰 于飞

摘要：为了预先掌握葡萄各生育期棚内温湿度环境，从而让农户有充足时间调整大棚管理措施，降低气象灾害风险，利用2018年11月—2019年6月大棚内外观测资料，分析了不同天气类型下棚內温湿度与棚外气象要素的相关性，并通过逐步回归方法建立了棚内逐小时温湿度预报模型。结果表明：棚内温湿度与棚外气温、空气相对湿度、风速、日照时长有不同程度的相关性，晴天和多云大棚内外要素之间相关系数大多在0.3以上，棚内气温与棚外要素的相关性更高且最大相关系数超过0.9，阴天相关性较低；棚内逐小时气温、空气相对湿度模型的R2多在0.5以上，气温模型预报值与实测值的均方根误差（RSME）≤3.7℃、平均绝对误差（MAE）≤2.9℃，空气相对湿度模型预报值与实测值的均方根误差≤13.3%、平均绝对误差≤10.6%。所得模型填补了该地区大棚葡萄各生育期温湿度预报的空白，为田间管理提供了参考依据。

关键词：大棚葡萄；生育期；气温；空气相对湿度；相关系数；预报模型

中图分类号：S165文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas2020-0258

Temperature and Relative Humidity Forecast Model of Greenhouse Grape Under Different Weather Types

Xiao Yang1，2， Wang Guan1， Yuan Shujie3， Yu Fei4

（1Tangshan Meteorological Bureau， Tangshan 063000， Hebei， China；2Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountains Climate and Resources， Guiyang 550002， Guizhou， China；3Chengdu University of Information Technology， Chengdu 610225， Sichuan， China；4Guizhou Institute of Mountains Environment and Climate， Guiyang 550002， Guizhou， China）

Abstract： To obtain the temperature and relative humidity in greenhouse during each grape growth period in advance， give farmers enough time to adjust greenhouse management measures and reduce the risk of meteorological disasters， this paper compared the observation data inside and outside the greenhouse from November 2018 to June 2019. Correlations between temperature and relative humidity inside the greenhouse and meteorological elements outside the greenhouse under different weather types were analyzed， and hourly temperature and relative humidity forecast model in the greenhouse were established through the stepwise regression method. The results show that the temperature and relative humidity inside the greenhouse have the correlations with temperature， relative humidity， wind speed and sunshine duration outside the greenhouse of different levels. On sunny and cloudy days， the correlation coefficients between the factors inside and outside the greenhouse are mostly above 0.3. The correlations are higher and the maximum correlation coefficients are more than 0.9， while the correlations in cloudy days are low. R2of hourly temperature and relative humidity forecast models in the greenhouse are mostly above 0.5. The RSME between the result of the temperature forecast model and the measured value is less than or equal to 3.7℃， and the MAE≤2.9℃. The RSME of the model-forecasted relative humidity and the measured value are less than or equal to 13.3%， and the MAE≤10.6%. To conclude， the models filled in the blank of the temperature and relative humidity forecast of the greenhouse grape in each growth period in this area， and could provide scientific reference for field management.

Keywords： Greenhouse Grapes； Growth Period； Temperature； Relative Humidity； Correlation Coefficient； Forecast Model

0引言

葡萄富含助豐富的果酸、矿物质和维生素，以及人体所需多种的氨基酸[1]，具有很高的营养价值和经济价值。大棚种植葡萄可以实现反季节成熟，同时提高产量和品质，为种植户创造更大的收益。在大棚葡萄种植过程中，棚外气象条件直接影响着棚内小气候变化[2-6]，若能借助棚外常规气象要素建立棚内温湿度预报模型，便可以准确掌握棚内气象要素的变化规律，为大棚葡萄防灾减灾、高质高产提供有力保障。……