刘志萍 余建华 周雨 龙余良 詹华斌

摘要：利用江西中南部40个气象站1959—2018年的常规观测资料，参考烟叶全生育期指标，运用模糊综合评价法和层次分析法，基于ArcGIS空间分析功能，对江西烟叶种植气象灾害危险性特征进行分析和风险区划。结果表明：影响江西中南部烟叶种植的主要气象灾害按权重大小依次为暴雨、冰雹、连阴雨、低温冰冻和高温热害，其中暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性分布东部高、西部低；冰雹危险性分布西北高、东南低；连阴雨危险性西部高于东部，且内部呈现自北向南递减的趋势。低温冰冻和高温热害危险性北部高于南部，东西分布比较均匀。综合来看，江西烟叶种植区气象灾害危险性表现为北高南低的分布特征，其中高风险区主要分布在抚州和吉安两市北部的部分地区。本研究区划结果可为江西烟叶种植决策提供科学依据和技术支撑，最大限度地避免或减小气象灾害对烟叶种植的影响。

关键词：模糊综合评价法；烟叶种植；气象灾害；危险性；区划

中图分类号：S166，X43文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas20191100282

Risk Division of Meteorological Disasters for Tobacco Planting in Jiangxi： Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Liu Zhiping， Yu Jianhua， Zhou Yu， Long Yuliang， Zhan Huabin

（Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center， Nanchang 330096， Jiangxi， China）

Abstract： Observation data of about 40 meteorological stations in the central and southern Jiangxi Province from 1959 to 2018 were used to explore the risk division of the meteorological disasters for tobacco planting， based on the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to get an accurate and elaborate division， the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS was adopted and the full growth period indicators of tobacco were taken into the study. The results showed that： in the weight order， the major meteorological disasters affecting tobacco planting in the central and southern Jiangxi were rainstorm， hail， continuous rainfall， low temperature freezing and heat injury， among which， rainstorm risk was higher in the east than that of in the west， and the risk of hail was higher in the northwest than that in the southeast， and the risk of continuous rain was higher in the west than that in the east with a decreasing trend from north to south， besides the risk of low-temperature freezing disaster and heat injury was higher in the north than the south， and was evenly distributed from east to west. Generally speaking， the comprehensive risk of meteorological disasters in tobacco planting areas in Jiangxi is distributed high in the north and low in the south， and the high-risk areas of comprehensive meteorological disasters are mainly distributed in the northern areas of Fuzhou and Ji’an. The results could minimize the impact of meteorological disasters on tobacco production in Jiangxi.

Keywords： Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation； Meteorological Disasters； Tobacco Planting； Risk； Distribution

0引言

江西省擁有63%的森林覆盖率，22.78%的水域和湿地，凭借良好的光、温、水、土等自然条件成为全国新兴的优质烟叶产区之一。近年来，随着全球气候变暖，极端天气频发，暴雨洪涝、冰雹等气象灾害对烟叶种植影响也越来越严重[1-2]。据统计，2008年以来江西烟叶产区每年因气象灾害造成的烟叶减产占烟叶收购产量的20%～40%。因此，开展烟叶种植气象灾害危险性评价与区划，对于防灾减灾、保障江西烟叶生产安全和农民收入具有重要的意义。……