单子丹 项朝霞 李云竹

摘 要： 伴随内蒙古自治区工业经济的快速发展，能源消耗与生态环境的矛盾日益凸显。如何兼顾能源合理消费、生态环境维护及地区经济的可持续发展成为亟待解决的问题。本文选取2017年内蒙古省101个县域碳排放数据作为研究单元，采用IPCC方法测量碳排放量，分析时空地理效应在内蒙古碳排放影响因素研究中的作用，探究出县域之间碳排放量的空间分布差异及驱动因素。实证研究发现：空间经济计量模型可以很好地应用到省级内部县域碳排放空间特征分析即影响因素研究;人均GDP、居民消费水平、产业结构和财政收入等均不利于低碳经济的发展，大力推进新兴技术产业发展是推动绿色低碳经济发展的重要保障。为各县域及国家低碳经济发展提供重要的理论意义。

关 键 词： 县域碳排放;截面数据分析;空间自相关检验;多元线性回归

DOI： 10.16315/j.stm.2020.02.012

中图分类号： F273.5   文献标志码：  A

Empirical test and time-space measurement model on carbon emissions

in the background of low-carbon economy：based on the cross-section

data of 101 counties in Inner Mongolia

SHAN Zi-dan1，2， XIANG Zhao-xia1， LI Yun-zhu1

（1.School of Economics and Management， Harbin University of Science and Technology ， Harbin 150040， China;

2.High-tech Industrial Development Research Center， Harbin University of Science and Technology， Harbin 150040， China）

Abstract： With the rapid development of Inner Mongolias industrial economy， the contradiction between energy and energy consumption and the ecological environment has become increasingly prominent. How to balance energy consumption， ecological environment maintenance and sustainable economic development has become an urgent problem to be solved. It selects the carbon emission data of 101 counties in Mongolia in the past five years as the research unit， The IPCC method was used to measure carbon emissions， and the role of space-time effects in the study of carbon emission factors in Inner Mongolia was analyzed to explore the spatial distribution differences and driving factors of carbon emissions between counties.The empirical study finds that the spatial econometric model can be applied to the analysis of the spatial characteristics of the countys internal carbon emissions， that is， the influencing factors; per capita GDP， household consumption level， industrial structure and fiscal revenue are not conducive to the development of low-carbon economy. Vigorously promoting the development of emerging technology industries is an important guarantee for promoting the development of a green and low-carbon economy. It provides important theoretical significance for the development of low-carbon economy in counties and countries.

Keywords： county carbon emissions; cross-sectional data analysis; spatial autocorrelation test; multiple linear regression

氣候变暖在全球十大环境问题中位居首位。近几十年来，温室气体的排放量不断上升，造成全球气温也在持续上升，严重影响人类未来可持续发展[1]。我国近两年多次提出节能减排，明确制定经济与环境和谐发展的目标与计划。内蒙古自治区主要以火力发电，是典型的能源消耗大省，能源消费对煤炭的依赖度超过90%，为全国6个依赖程度最高的省区之一[2]。这种过度依赖煤炭的消费结构造成了严重的环境问题，最突出表现为碳排放极为严重。……