王天瑜 屈丽娜 倪利智 沈丹红 宁世强

摘 要：為准确地判定岩溶隧道开挖过程中的塌方风险，应用未确知测度理论，建立塌方风险预警模型。首先，根据隧道塌方的影响因素分析，建立隧道开挖塌方风险预警的三级指标体系，选取年平均降雨量、单轴抗压强度、围岩渗透系数、岩溶直径、隧道埋深、开挖工法等18项指标作为预警指标，包括9个定量指标和9个定性指标，划分5个预警等级。其次，构建各定量指标和定性指标的分级标准，构造各定量指标的未确知测度函数，利用信息熵理论计算各指标权重，依照置信度识别准则进行塌方风险预警等级判定。最后，选取某岩溶区隧道工程为实例，验证该预警模型的适用性。结果表明：该隧道开挖塌方风险预警等级为Ⅲ级，即为橙色预警等级，该结果与实际情况较吻合，说明隧道开挖过程中存在较大坍塌危险，隧道内应配备专职地质灾害安全员，并对地质灾害进行不间断监测。该预警方法能够为提前采取塌方风险防范措施和编制应急预案提供理论依据，也为隧道塌方风险预警提供新的思路。

关键词：隧道开挖;塌方风险;未确知测度理论;预警指标;置信度识别

中图分类号：X 937

文献标志码：A

文章编号：1672-9315（2020）02-0284-08

DOI：10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2020.0213开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Early warning of karst tunnel collapse risk based on

uncertainty measurement theory

WANG Tian-yu，QU Li-na，NI Li-zhi，SHEN Dan-hong，NING Shi-qiang

（School of Energy & Environment Engineering，Zhongyuan University of Technology，Zhengzhou 451191，China）

Abstract：In order to accurately determine the collapse risk during karst tunnel excavation，the early warning mode for landslide risk was established applying uncertainty measurement theory.Firstly，three-level index system for early warning of tunnel collapse risk was established based on the analysis of the influence factors.Annual mean rainfall，uniaxial compressive strength，wall rock osmotic coefficient，karst diameter，tunnel buried depth，excavation method and other eighteen factors were selected as early-warning indexes，among which are nine quantitative indexes and nine qualitative indexes，and five warning levels were divided.Then，the classification criteria of quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes were constructed，the uncertainty measurement function of each quantitative index was built，the index weight was calculated through information entropy theory，and the landslide risk warning level was determined in accordance with the rules of credible recognition criteria.Finally，a tunnel project in a karst area was taken as an engineering example to examine the applicability of the present model.The result shows that the collapse risk warning level in tunnel excavation is Ⅲ，or orange warning level，and it fits the actual situation well，which indicates that there is a greater collapse risk during the tunnel excavation，and full-time geological hazard safety officers should be equipped in the tunnel，and the geological hazard should be continuously monitored.Therefore，the warning method can provide a theoretical basis for taking collapse risk prevention measures and preparing emergency plan in advance，as well asa new idea for tunnel collapse risk warning.

为了构建岩溶隧道开挖塌方风险预警模型，将表1所建立预警指标取值范围与预警等级相对应，参考现行的围岩分类方法[2-3]和施工事故预警分类[19-20]，把隧道塌方风险预警级……