刘少军 李伟光 陈小敏 佟金鹤

摘  要：气候变化影响生态系统的最重要表现之一是引起植被净初级生产力（NPP）的变化。全球气候变暖对中国天然橡胶树种植区内植被NPP的影响值得深入研究。根据1981—2010全国气候数据和RCP4.5情景的气候预估数据，基于气候植被NPP模型，对1981—2010、2041—2060、2061—2080年中国天然橡胶种植区内NPP变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）随着气候变暖，天然橡胶种植区内NPP呈现整体先增加后略减小趋势，其中1981—2010年研究区内植被年平均NPP为12.89 tC/hm2;2041—2060年研究区内植被年平均NPP为15.07 tC/hm2;2061—2080年研究区内植被年平均NPP为15.01 tC/hm2;（2）从空间分布上看，不同时期的NPP的高值区主要集中分布在海南岛的东部沿海，广东的信宜、电白，广西的东兴，云南的景洪、勐腊等地;低值区主要分布在云南的临沧、屏边以北，海南岛的西部沿海，广东的徐闻等地。相关结果可为相关部门制定天然橡胶适应未来气候变化的决策提供依据。

关键词：天然橡胶;植被;NPP;预估

中图分类号：P49;Q948      文献标识码：A

Prediction of Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Main Rubber Areas of China under Future Climate Change

LIU Shaojun， LI Weiguang， CHEN Xiaomin， TONG Jinhe

Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science / Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province， Haikou， Hainan 570203， China

Abstract： One of the most important manifestations of climate change affecting ecosystems is the change of net primary productivity （NPP） of vegetation. Under the background of global warming， how much the net primary productivity of vegetation in natural rubber tree planting areas in China is affected needs to be studied. Based on the national climate data from 1981 to 2010 and the climate prediction data of RCP 4.5 scenario， and the net primary productivity model of climate vegetation， the NPP changes in natural rubber planting areas in China were analyzed from 1981 to 2010， 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080. With climate warming， NPP in the natural rubber planting areas increased first and then decreased slightly. The annual average NPP of vegetation in the study area was 12.89 tC/hm2 from 1981 to 2010， 15.07 tC/hm2 from 2041 to 2060， and 15.01 tC/hm2 from 2061 to 2080. In spatial distribution， the high value areas of NPP in different periods were mainly distributed in the eastern coast of Hainan， Xinyi， Dianbai， Dongxing of Guangxi， Jinghong and Mengla of Yunnan， and the areas of low value of NPP were mainly distributed in Lincang， north of Pingbian of Yunnan， west coast of Hainan and Xuwen of Guangdong. Relevant results could provide making decisions on the adaptation of rubber to future climate change.

Keywords： natural rubber; vegetation; net primary production; prediction

DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2020.03.028

過去100多年全球的平均地表温度约升高了0.85 ℃，其中绝大多数区域以地表增暖为主[1]。在全球气候变暖背景下，与气候息息相关的植被生态系统受气候变化的影响更为直接，气候变化势必会对植被的生长造成影响。由于全球气候变化程度差异，不同区域植被生态系统对气候变化的响应也因自身抗干扰和恢复能力的不同而有所差异[2]。在自然环境下，植被的生长除受自身的生物学特征和土壤等限制外，主要受气候因子的影响。因此，可以通过植被的干物质与气候因子的相关性估算净初级生产力[3]。……