任义方 朱凤 高苹 张旭晖 蔡凝昊

摘要

为了有效提高对水稻气象型病害的防控能力，并提出有针对性的生产管理措施和建议，本文基于构建的综合稻曲病指数及相应划分的气象适宜度等级，利用历史气象资料、水稻生育期资料以及两套精细化预报产品，针对2015年和2017年稻曲病典型发生年份，结合病害监测时段中易于病菌入侵和流行的气象条件，选择病害起报时间，分别给出了基于欧洲中期天气预报中心细网格预报产品和江苏省气象局精细化预报产品的稻曲病流行气象适宜度等级预测结果。通过稻曲病大田调查资料的检验，发现提前7 d给出稻曲病发生气象适宜度等级的预测结果与全省实际稻曲病发病趋势和程度基本相符，实现了对水稻稻曲病监测和预警的及时性、连续性和动态性。

关键词

水稻稻曲病; 病害指数; 气象适宜度; 等级预测; 精细化预报

中图分类号：

S 435.111.4

文献标识码： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2018012

Fine forecast technique for meteorological suitability grade of rice false smut

REN Yifang ZHU Feng GAO Ping ZHANG Xuhui CAI Ninghao3

（1. Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center， Nanjing 210008， China; 2. Plant Protection Station of Jiangsu

Province， Nanjing 210046， China; 3. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210008， China）

Abstract

In order to effectively improve the ability of preventing and controlling of meteorological disease of rice， as well as put forward targeted measures and suggestions of production management， historical meteorological data， rice growth period data and two sets of fine forecast products were used to do prediction based on the constructed comprehensive rice false smut index and the corresponding meteorological suitability grade. Taking rice false smuts occurred in 2015 and 2017 as examples， combined with meteorological conditions that prone to pathogen invasion and prevalence during monitoring period， disease initial forecast time was selected， and prediction results of meteorological suitability grade for rice false smut were given separately based on the fine forecast products from ECMWF and Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu. According to the field survey data of rice false smut， it was found that prediction results of meteorological suitability grade for rice false smut given 7 days in advance were consistent with the trends and degrees of actual disease occurred in Jiangsu Province. Therefore， promptness， continuity and dynamism for disease monitoring and early warning could be achieved.

Key words

rice false smut; disease index; meteorological suitability grade; grade prediction; fine forecast

水稻稻曲病俗稱“富贵病”，与稻瘟病菌侵染器官不同，该病仅发生于穗部，危害谷粒，在病菌不断繁殖的过程中，以消耗病稻谷粒和邻近稻粒大量养分的方式，阻碍其营养输送，造成空秕粒增多，千粒重下降，进而影响水稻产量和品质。自20世纪30-40 年代开始，我国南北稻区每年都有不同程度的稻曲病发生。近年来，随着水稻品种的更新、栽培新技术的推广以及施肥水平的提高，稻曲病已成为水稻生产上一种常见的病害，一旦发病常常导致大流行，其中以辽宁、四川、湖南、云南和湖北等地发病较为严重，病穗率一般为5%～10%，重病田可达30%以上[1-5]。……