朱婷婷　余兴湛　雷琳　杨锦青

摘 要 采用Excel和复Morlet小波函数等统计分析方法，分析台山市1954～2017年暴雨的气候特征。结果表明：台山市年平均暴雨日数为9.2 d，平均暴雨强度为87.5 mm/d。一年四季均有暴雨发生，主要集中在4～9月。暴雨的月变化表现为明显的双峰型，主峰在5～6月，次峰在8月。持续暴雨占暴雨总日数的29.4%，持续3 d以上的暴雨均出现在汛期，2次持续5 d的暴雨均出现在后汛期。暴雨初日具有逐渐提前的特征，终日推迟特征不明显。年暴雨日数的年际差异很大，最多20 d，最少1 d。小波分析显示，台山市暴雨日数存在准6 a和准27 a的周期变化，预测台山市未来几年将继续处于暴雨偏多期。

关键词 气候学 ；暴雨 ；统计特征 ；台山市

中图分类号 P458.1+21.1 文献标识码 A Doi：10.12008/j.issn.1009-2196.2018.06.018

Climatological Characteristics of Rainstorm in Taishan City

from 1954 to 2017

ZHU Tingting YU Xingzhan LEI Lin YANG Jinqing

（Meteorological Bureau of Taishan City， Tanshan， Guangdong 529200）

Abstract The climatological characteristics of rainstorm in Taishan City from 1954 to 2017 were analyzed by using Excel and complex Morlet wavelet function. The results showed that interannual average days of rainstorm was 9.2 d with an average intensity of 87.5 mm/d. It was possible for heavy rains to take place all the year round， but the heavy rainstorms were mainly taking place from April to September. The monthly change of heavy rains was bimodal with the primary peak in May to June and the secondary peak in the August. The days of continuous rainstorms were accounted for 29.4 % of the total rainstorms. The rainstorms lasting more than 3d occurred during the flood season， and heavy rains lasting 5d for 2 rounds occurred during the subsequent flood season. The first day of heavy rain was ahead of time， and the end day of heavy rain was postponed but not obviously. The number of heavy rain days had a great interannual change， 20 days different at most and 1 day different at the least. The wavelet analysis showed that there was a periodic change of a quasi period of 6 years and a quasi period of 27 years in the number of heavy rain days in Taishan City， and it was thus predicted that more heavy rains would occur continuously in the coming years in Taishan City.

Keywords climatology ； heavy rains ； statistical characteristics ； Taishan City

台山市位于珠江三角洲西南部，毗邻港澳，南临南海，素有“全国第一侨乡”、“内外两个台山”的美誉，也是珠江三角洲著名的“鱼米之乡”。台山市位于亚热带海洋性季风气候区，当地的主要气象灾害有台风、暴雨、雷雨大风、高温等等，其中暴雨是出现比较频繁的灾害之一，严重影响了本地工业、农业等行业生产。虽然到目前为止，很多学者对于暴雨的气候变化特征做出了一些研究[1-5]，得出了很多适应于部分地区的一些规律[6-12]，但是暴雨的发生发展受地理环境影响较大，不同的地理位置，不同的下垫面等等，都对暴雨的产生形成影响。台山市又属于广东省的农业大市，对于暴雨引发的洪涝灾害比较敏感，到目前为止，还没有针对本地暴雨气候变化的研究。……