李海军 陆琛莉 宋刘明

(嘉兴市气象局，浙江 嘉兴 314000)

嘉兴秋冬季中度及中度以上霾天气的潜在污染来源及污染传输特征分析*

李海军 陆琛莉 宋刘明

(嘉兴市气象局，浙江 嘉兴 314000)

秋冬季是嘉兴中度及中度以上霾天气多发季节，使用HYSPLIT4模型和潜在源贡献因子法及浓度权重轨迹分析法对嘉兴的潜在污染来源及传输特征进行分析。结果表明，嘉兴中度及中度以上霾天气的后向轨迹可以聚成3类。第1类为来自偏西方向的近距离传输轨迹，轨迹数量占比最大，约46%。第2类为西偏北约45°方向的中距离传输轨迹，轨迹数量约占总数的42%。第3类为西偏北约60°方向的远距离传输轨迹，轨迹数量仅占总数的12%。远距离传输的污染物主要是PM2.5、PM10、SO2和CO，而近距离传输的主要是NO2和O3。对嘉兴秋冬季中度及中度以上霾天气影响较大的主要还是近距离的浙北和苏南地区，尤其是静稳天气时苏南长江沿岸的PM2.5浓度快速增长可能是最主要原因。

中度及中度以上霾天气 后向轨迹 聚类分析 潜在污染来源 传输特征

Abstract: Autumn and winter are seasons prone to moderate and heavier haze weather in Jiaxing. Using the HYSPLIT4 model,potential source contribution factor method and concentration weighted trajectory method,the potential pollution source and transmission characteristics were analyzed. Results show that three types of back trajectory were clustered. The first type came from the west,covering 46% trajectory quantity. The second came from 45° north of the west,covering 42% trajectory quantity. And the third came from 60° north of the west,covering 12% trajectory quantity. The transmission distance of the first type was the nearest while that of the third farthest. PM2.5,PM10,SO2and CO could transferred for a long way,but NO2and O3could not. The Jiaxing’s protential pollution source mainly came from close area like north of Zhejiang and south of Jiangsu. When the weather was quiet,south of Jiangsu along the Yangtze River might the chief source because PM2.5there increased rapidly.

Keywords: moderate and heavier haze weather; back trajectory; clustering analysis; potential pollution source; transmission characteristics

近年来，随着城市化、工业化的快速发展，机动车保有量、化石燃料消耗量、工业废气排放量不断上升，全国各地霾天气出现频率越来越高，霾中含有的细颗粒物(PM2.5)不仅能降低大气能见度，威胁交通安全[1-3]，而且还易吸附有毒物质，对人们的健康造成危害。 大气PM2.5除本地来源外，外地源通过大气运动由远距离输送而来也不可忽视[4-5]。

我国霾天气多发，而且呈现出区域大范围集中多发态势。……