欧弢++张述清++甘淑++杨焰++廖顺宽++马石林++徐徐

摘要：以典型贫困山区县云南省永德县为例，采用研究区土地利用总体规划成果与相关资源环境资料对山区县域的土地资源、水资源、地质环境以及生态环境等进行了多方面的单要素承载力分析，并基于空间关联建立综合评价体系，采用均方差决策法确定综合承载力权重，借助GIS空间分析技术计算区域资源环境综合承载力。结果表明，2013年永德县综合承载力为0.517 2。依据土地利用总体规划成果和人口发展预测出2020年综合承载力为0.509 8，较2013年有所下降，但仍处于中级承载力水平。总的来说，永德县全县整体承载能力较好，但乌木龙乡承载力为低级，承载形势严峻。

关键词：资源环境承载力；GIS；均方差决策法；永德县

中图分类号：F205；F301.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）03-0454-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.03.014

Assessment of Regional Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment at Mountain County Area Based on GIS and Mean Square Difference Method

OU Tao1， ZHANG Shu-qing2， GAN Shu1， YANG Yan2， LIAO Shun-kuan2， MA Shi-lin2， XU Xu3

（1. Institute of Land and Resources Engineering， Kunming University of Science and Technology， Kunming 650093， China；

2.Yunnan Institute of Land Resource Program and Design， Kunming 650216， China；3.Geophysical and Geochemical Prospecting Team of Yunnan Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau，Kunming 652100，China）

Abstract： Taking Yongde county of Yunnan province as study area， which is a typical poor mountainous area， the single factor carrying capacity of land resources， water resources， geological environment and ecological environment and so on in mountain area were analyzed based on the overall land use planning results and related resources and environment information. A comprehensive evaluation system was established based on the spatial correlation， the weight of bearing capacity was determined by the method of mean square deviation， and the comprehensive carrying capacity of regional resources and environment was calculated with the GIS spatial analysis technology. The results showed that， the comprehensive carrying capacity of Yongde county was 0.517 2 in 2013， and would be 0.509 8 in 2020 according to the land use overall planning results and population development， compared with the 2013， it was decline， but it would be still in the middle level of bearing capacity. In general， the carrying capacity of resources and environment of Yongde county was good， except Wumulong township， its carrying capacity of resources and environment was low level， and the situation was grim.

Key words： carrying capacity of resource and environment； GIS； mean square difference method； Yongde county

资源与环境是人类社会存在与发展的基础。随着人口增长和社会经济发展，人类与资源供应及环境的矛盾日益突出。对资源环境承载力的合理评估是避免发展中的资源环境问题，保证可持续发展的前提[1]。因此，科学合理评价区域资源环境承载力对于区域发展具有重要意义。

资源环境承载力指在维持人地关系协调可持续的前提下，一定区域内的资源环境条件对人类生产生活的功能适宜程度及规模保障程度[2]，它是一个反映经济社会总量的综合能力指标，需对区域内资源、环境以及人口进行分析，建立综合评价的指标体系。而科学的评价指标选取及指标权重确定对于科学客观评价区域资源环境承载力至关重要。……