Professor, Deputy Director, and Doctoral Candidate Supervisor, Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University

MAJOR CHANGES OF WORLD SITUATION AND CHINA'S
INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY

LIU JIANGYONG

Professor, Deputy Director, and Doctoral Candidate Supervisor, Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University

In November 2016, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, defeated the highly popular Hillary Clinton, and became president elect of the United States. It is generally believed that Trump's policies are hard to predict because of his lack of political experiences. The author believes that, it is necessary for the US to adjust its external strategy, no matter who will be in the White House. The US traditional mindset on power politics and geostrategy is the root cause for its failure in diplomatic and security strategies. The “sustainable rule for security” advocated by China is worth considering by the US policy makers.

The US should have a clear idea of the characteristics of the current international pattern and the real threats. Since the start of the 21st Century, the traditional and non-traditional international patterns have been co-existing and influencing each other.In the traditional pattern, by 2016, the US status as the only super power in the world has been further consolidated for its rapier growth than either Europe or Japan, and for the appreciation of its currency.The world structure remains to be “unipolar and diverse”, the US still taking the lead in the world's military and financial sectors. However, the US sees its soft power as well as influence on global politics in decline. In the meantime, global diversity is rising, as demonstrated by the emergence of G20 and non-state actors.

The real threats and challenges facing the US are from the nontraditional international pattern. The traditional international relations system and the traditional international pattern are both decided by the changing influences and relations among “states”and “international organizations”. The key of this pattern lies in power plays and strategic adjustments of the world's big powers. However, this system has change greatly since the “9·11 attack”, and especially since the Iraqi War broke out in 2003. The core in this change is the emergence of a non-traditional international pattern. The so-called non-traditional international pattern refers to the escalating conflicts between the military alliance led by the US and non-governmental, non-state entities, as represented by Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups or extremist forces, which have formed a global terrorist network, or the “covert pole” of the world. This is attributable to the rise of international terrorism. The advancement of information technology and greater material wealth has enabled the rapid expansion of transnational entities that threaten national security. The rise of the IS (Islamic State) in 2014 has made the non-traditional national pattern clearer than ever.

Chinese President Xi Jinpingmet with U.S. President Barack Obama in Lima, Peru on November 19, 2016.

After the 2015 terrorist attack in France, French President Hollande announced the country has entered a state of war. In the traditional international pattern, there are not only conflicts, competitions, and confrontations, but also cooperation and interdependence. But in the non-traditional pattern, there is no cooperation, but conflicts and wars only. In this pattern, it is difficult to even find a rival to negotiate truce and peace. According to the statistics published by the US Homeland Security Department, by the beginning of Oct, 2016, there have been 116 attacks involving the IS in the western world, including 51 in Europe, 36 in the US, and 26 targeting European and US citizens living or travelling around the world. These figures far outstrip that of the conflicts among states.

In this context, all countries should consciously reduce unnecessary energy waste in dealing with the traditional international relations system and seek cooperation, so as to achieve sustainable security globally, regionally and domestically. As Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out in his conversation with the US President Elect Trump, cooperation is the only right choice for both countries.

OBAMA'S ASIA-PACIFIC“REBALANCING STRATEGY”HAS FAILED

The so-called “Pivot to Asia” or “Rebalance to Asia-Pacific” put in place in 2010 was the largest mistake in the US Asia-Pacific policy. It was put forward because decision makers in Washington failed to fully understand whatthe non-traditional pattern means to the US. Their minds are still framed by the traditional power politics and geo-strategies, lagging far behind the development of the current world.

The Obama administration prioritized power competition and maintenance of US hegemony. The US deployed 60% of its military force to Asia, in the name of protecting navigation freedom in the South China Sea. It used the Philippines and Vietnam to “counterbalance” China; it publicly expressed support to Japan, stating the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan applied to the Diaoyu Island; it promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership while excluding China. All these decisions have hampered cooperation in the East Pacific, causing regional instability, and have hindered the development of the China-US relations.

“Pivot to Asia” strategy ended in failure. China has further consolidated its relations with Russia, in response to the prospect of the US ganging up with Japan; change in the US domestic politics has led to the shattering of the TPP. It is proven that it should be the first priority of all new governments to reduce military confrontation and develop the economy. The Belt and Road Initiative and the idea of win-win cooperation advocated by China are bound to gain worldwide support.

However, not all countries agree with China's proposals and practices. Japan might continue to navigate the dangerous waters even after the US has turned its wheels. The Shinzo Abe administration even attempted to take over the US in the TPP negotiation and take the lead in the game of excluding China. It also attempts to carry on the“Pivot” strategy targeting China. As a result, it will probably end up in isolation.

OBAMA'S “VIOLENT MULTILATERALISM” SEVERELY HARMS EUROPE

European countries have been struggling with the crisis of debt, refugees, and anti-terrorism since 2010. This is a direct result of the “violent multilateralism” pushed forward by the Obama administration. European countries that are allies of the US are also the largest victims of the wrong decisions by Washington.

One example is the Libyan war initiated by the US. This war was different from the Iraqi war, which was initiated unilaterally by the Bush administration regardless of the UN resolution. There was little support from the US ally countries, and the Bush government foughton its own. President Obama is against unilateralism and the Iraqi war. But his “violent multilateralism” is no better. What he did was trying to get America's NATO friends in Europe to back it up in a “group fight”.

The Libyan war is a typical example of “violent multilateralism”. Obama once pointed out that, the US has solved the Libyan problem by spending only 2 billion USD and without sacrificing the life of one US soldier.The US and its NATO allies in Europe bombarded the Libyan soil. French President Sarkozy deployed fighter jets to the frontline, a move followed by the British. Greece and other countries also joined the bombing despite their tight budgets. Things have not yet calmed in Iraq and Afghanistan when wars in Libya and Syria escalated. North Africa and the Middle East are in severe disorder. This has enabled the IS and organizational terrorism to thrive. Saudi Arabia and its allies intervened in the Yemeni civil war, leading to prolonged warfare in the Arabic peninsular. NATO action has plunged Europe deeper into debt and generated a huge amount of carbon emission. After the wars, unprecedented refugee waves swept Europe. Terrorist attacks have shocked Belgium, France, Germany, and others. European integration is in big trouble facing economic slowdown, euro depreciation, escalating social conflicts, and the prospect of Brexit. In Ukraine, the EU membership discussion has caused domestic fragmentation and a US-Russia rift, exacerbating geostrategic conflicts among big powers. President Obama had to admit that his decision to initiate a war on Libya was the biggest mistake during his office. This proves the failure of “violent multilateralism”.

East Asia has been dominated by“peaceful multilateralism” and free from the plague of “violent multilateralism” since the start of the 21st century. But Japan, which took the path of peaceful development within the framework of a constitution put in place after the WWII, is at risk of falling into the trap of “violent multilateralism”. In 2015, the Abe cabinet approved the new security laws and started to push forward the so-called “right of collective self-defense” around the world, which allows it to deploy forces outside Japan. Japan is also considering amending its constitution. This means Japan may become a participant and promoter of “violent multilateralism”in the South and East China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula. This has inevitably aroused vigilance worldwide.

NEW ISSUES AND TRENDS FOR CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY 2017

A country's International strategy serves its overarching strategic goals. It covers exchanges and cooperation in world affairs, national defense, economy, trade, culture and other areas. It is the external relations arrangement and international practices formed under the guidance of a national political guideline within a long period of time. For China, the year 2017 has the following features.

First, 2017 will be a year for reshaping big country relations. After Mr. Trump takes office as President of the US, China-US relations and US-Russia relations face both opportunities for improvement and uncertainties. The China-Russian strategic coordinated partnership will continue to strengthen. If relations among China, the US and Russia can improve simultaneously, it will be unprecedented sinceWWII and have positive influence on Europe-Asia relations, world peace and development. European countries will be more inward-minded, placing focus on maintaining domestic security and people's wellbeing. China-European relations will progress on a new base.

Second, 2017 will be a year of identifying with the “sustainable security concept”. The new security concept featuring common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, first advocated by President Xi Jinping in 2014, has won support from more than 40 member countries of the CICA Summit. Like the theory of sustainable development, the sustainable security concept will play a significant guiding role in governments' decision making and practices on maintaining security. Since the end of WWII, America's power politics based on realism and geostrategy theory have failed. As new adjustments are taking place in relations among big countries, if consensus can be reached on “sustainable security concept” by China and Russia, and by China and the US, solid foundations will be laid for their relations.

Third, 2017 will be a year of expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. This strategy is initiated but not dominated by China; it advocates co-construction rather than individual efforts. The strategy has transcended the scope of Eurasia and is recognized and participated by countries around the world. Different from the TPP or the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the Belt and Road Initiative does not focus on complicated negotiations for reducing tariffs, but on capital cooperation, infrastructure construction, and job creation in a downto-earth manner. The aim is to promote sustainable improvement of livelihood, cultural exchanges, and industrial cooperation in all participating countries. As the UNDP joins the strategy, the future Belt and Road construction will be expanded to Africa, Latin America and broader countries and regions. If Mr. Trump decides to upgrade the US infrastructure, China-US cooperation under the Belt and Road framework can be a shortcut.

Forth, 2017 will be a year of advocating “peaceful multilateralism”. It has been one of the salient features of international dynamics since the advent of the 21st century, that in regions plagued with “violent multilateralism”, wars arise, sovereignty and human rights are ruined, and carbon emission skyrockets; in regions where “peaceful multilateralism” prevails, relative peace and stability is preserved despite risks of conflicts. “Peaceful multilateralism” is demonstrated in forms of G20, APEC, East Asia Summit, CIC Summit, Six-party Talks, RCEP, etc. In 2017, China should push forward“peaceful multilateralism”, enabling small and medium sized countries to play a greater role in regional integration and security dialogue.

Fifth, 2017 will be a year in which “partnerships strengthen while alliances weaken”. The rise of international partnerships has become an international trend after the end of the cold war. It is a new type of international relations featuring peaceful development and win-win cooperation sought for by countries around the world. For the past more than 20 years, China has established partnerships of various kinds with many countries. Recent years, the bilateral relations between China and many countries have been upgraded to comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. The strengthening of partnership brings stable development of bilateral relations and no harm to any third countries.In the meantime, the bilateral and multilateral military alliances still exist as the residual of the old diplomatic and security mode, but have not brought much security and development to the allies. To the contrary, ally politics sometimes bring more risks to the ruling status of state leaders and external security. Military alliance alone is hard to cope with non-traditional security threats and therefore will wane.

All countries should consciously reduce unnecessary energy waste in dealing with the traditional international relations system and seek cooperation, so as to achieve sustainable security globally, regionally and domestically.

Sixth, 2017 will be a year of improving neighborly relations. At the second half of 2016, China, not affected by the so-called South China Sea arbitration backed by the US and Japan, invited the Pilipino President Duterte for a state visit. China has upheld sovereignty and oceanic rights and interests in the South China Sea, and comprehensively restored relations with ASEAN countries. After the US general elections, as China-US relations improve, China-ASEAN relations can be further consolidated. In Northeast Asia, under the pressure of the US and South Korean military, President Park Geunhye decided to set up the THAAD antimissile system in South Korea. This has led to a rift in China-South Korean relations. This move has been strongly opposed by the opposition parties and the general public in the ROK. Things develop at the opposite direction when they go extreme. The upcoming president of South Korea will face the issue of restoring China-South Korea relations in 2017. China needs to handle this subtle situation prudently. Japan has made use of this development and signed an Intelligence Sharing Agreement with South Korea. It continues strengthening deployment of the selfdefense forces to the East China Sea waters around the Diaoyu Island.

10.19422/j.cnki.cn10-1398/d.2017.01.009