Professor, Director, the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University

MIDDLE EAST IN 2016: OPPORTUNITIES AMONG DANGERS

LIU ZHONGMIN

Professor, Director, the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University

On December 22, 2016, the Syrian military announced that it had regained full control of Aleppo after the last rebel fighters and civilians evacuated this northern city. The picture shows a boy, holding the portrait of Syrian President Bashar Hafez al-Assad, in Aleppo on the day.

The Middle East situation in 2016 has been an extension of that since the major changes in the region featuring transformation and upheavals interwoven with each other. On the one hand, the turbulence has been deepening, spreading and overflowing, highlighted by the diplomatic relationship breakoff crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the deepening of gaming between the US and Russia, the attempted coup in Turkey, the massive terrorist attacks by IS in Europe and the Middle East, the hardship of anti-terror battle against IS, the deadlock of political solution of Syria issue, the heating-up of Kurdish problem, the constant low oil price and the difficult transformation of the Middle East states so on so forth. On the other hand, a ray of hope for order among the chaos has arisen in the region. At the regional level, although the gaming among major countries both inside and outside the region has been deepening, the consensus has been enhanced on political solution of the hot issues including the Syria crisis, joint efforts in tackling terrorism and refugee crisis, strengthening the international cooperation in fighting against IS. At the national level, though still with very difficult transformation in the regional countries, it has been the shared aspiration of the countries and people in the region to have stability, good governance and development.

DEEPENING YET NOT FULLY CONFRONTED US-RUSSIA GAMING

Seen from the perspective of global strategy, the basic reason of the continuous deepening of the Middle East upheavals in 2016 laid on the readjustment of the Middle East strategies of both the US and Russia as well as the complex gaming between the two major countries. However, the bilateral relationship has been featured with limited confrontation and coexistence of contest and cooperation, instead of full-scale massive confrontation.

Overall contraction and controllable leadership have been the basic features of the US strategy towards the Middle East. Based on that, the US has loosened its Syria policy, eased tensions with Iran and made very limited efforts in fighting against IS. Meanwhile, Russia has assaulted military attack on IS to support the Bashar regime, enhanced intervention in the Middle East affairs by increasing strategic investment in Iran, Egypt and other major states in the region. At the same time, Russia has regarded the Middle East as its main orientation for breaking through its strategic dilemma after the Ukraine crisis. The strategic situation of the US retreating and Russia advancing along with the contradictions between the two major powers on the Syria crisis, fighting against IS and competing for the regional power have further complicated regional hot issues as well as the division and realignment of regional forces. As a result, Middle East has been a key component of the“New Cold War” named by Medvedev.

Otherwise, it should also be noticed that Russia's increased strategic investment in the Middle East has still been a limited one based on partial benefits. Russia is not yet capable of nor has the will for competing with the US and the West in the Middle East. Therefore, US-Russia gaming in the Middle East is still a limited and controllable one instead of a massive full-scale confrontation, and there is a room for cooperation and interest exchange between both sides on Syria issue and combating IS.

The relationship between the US and Russia in 2016 showed that both sides had frequent interactions on Syria issue and combating IS. For instance, both sides once reached a ceasefire agreement in September, testifying the will of cooperation. However, due to serious differences, the agreement soon came to nothing. Later on, both sides vetoed each other on the October UN Security Council meeting, resulting in the failure of adoption of the draft solutions to Syria issue put forward respectively by Spain and Russia. From the perspective of future development, the US and Russia will not only compete against each other on the political solution to Syria issue, fighting againstIS and winning over regional major countries, but also cooperate in a limited scale with each other on hot issues in the region.

CONTINUOUS IMBALANCE OF REGIONAL SITUATION WITH NO REGIONAL SUPER POWER

At the regional situation level, the source of current chaos lies in the difficulties of rebuilding regional pattern caused by the tremendous changes in the region, the readjustment of the US strategy, the sudden rise of IS and the failure of the formation of a stable balance of forces. The imbalance in the Middle East situation was worsened in 2016, highlighted by the constant deterioration of the strategic environment of Turkey and Syria, the ambition of which as regional major powers has encountered continuous setbacks due to both internal and external troubles.

Firstly, the confrontation on geopolitics, ethnic groups and religious sects between the two camps with Saudi Arabia and Iran as cores has been increasingly solidified. However, in more cases this confrontation has been carried out by agents instead of being a comprehensive direct one. In the past years, continued agent competition has taken place between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the issues of Bahrain, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. With a diplomatic crisis at the beginning of 2016, the antagonism between the two countries became undisguised and two camps were formed. The contradictions between both countries are not simply about churches, but the overlapped three contradictions including geopolitics competing for regional leadership, different ethnic groups namely Arab and Persia as well as different religious sects namely Sunnite and Shiite. This antagonism has been a “new normal”with constant disagreements yet still far from war. The countries in the Middle East have gradually fallen into three camps, namely the Saudi Arabia camp, the Iran camp and the Middle camp. Since the sanctions were lifted, Iran has shown an increasing momentum of rising, though it will not be able to get rid of the difficulty caused by years of sanctions in a short run. Although still a major country in the region, Saudi Arabia has fallen into serious strategic anxiety due to the rising of Iran, the impact of low oil price, the difficult foreign relations and the retrogression of its alliance with the US.

Russian Ambassadorto Turkey Andrey Karlov was shot dead when attending an event in the capital of Turkey Ankara on the night of December 19, 2016. The picture shows Andrey Karlov's coffin being moved out of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Moscow after his memorial service on December 22, 2016.

Secondly, based on its demand for seeking major power position, competing for regional leadership and solving the Kurdish problem, Turkey has hit out in all directions in 2016. However, its ambition to be a major power suffered a severe frustration. In recent year, Turkey became an enemy of Israel on the Bahrain-Israel issue, fought with Iran on the Syria issue, competed with Egypt's El-Sisi regime on the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, tangling with Iraq and Syria on the Kurdish issue, gaming with Russia on the issues of Syria and fighting against IS, and even contesting with Saudi Arabia on the leadership in the Sunnite and the Islamic world. Turkey has played negative roles in most of the above cases. Seriously affected by the attempted coup, the Kurdish problem and frequent terrorist attacks in 2016, and having passed its prime at the beginning of the “Arab Spring”, Turkey is adopting a more prudent and introverted foreign policy.

Lastly, with malposition of power and influence, the transformation of forces in traditional major countries in the region is still far from being accomplished. It's hard for either Egypt or Israel to strike high though their position in the region should not be sniffed. To make a comparison of the forces among the five pillar states namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel, apart from the situation of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey already mentioned above, Egypt's position has been significantly weakened due to its domestic turbulence and economic depression. However, the El-Sisi regime is still trying hard to revitalize Egypt's position as a major power in the region, the foundation of which is still there. The security environment in Israel has been greatly improved, and thanks to its strong economy and sci-tech, Israel has been one of the few stable countries rarely seen among the major countries in the Middle East. However, except for adopting a more stubborn and conservative policy on Israel-Palestine issue, Israel does not have any condition or capability to play a leadingrole in regional affairs. All in all, in current regional situation, no single major country could dominate the regional affairs. Positively, the countries will all adopt more careful and rational foreign policies, which will provide prerequisite for the political solution of the regional hot issues. Negatively, the long-lasting imbalance in regional situation will result in worsened disorder in the region, and seriously impact regional security and stability.

DIFFICULT TRANSFORMATION OF MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES WITH GENERAL TREND OF SEEKING DEVELOPMENT AND STABILITY

In general, all Middle East countries fall into three categories. The first one consists of those represented by Egypt and Tunisia, featuring better overall situation yet still pessimistic outlook. They have in large part only preliminarily accomplished the mission of maintaining national stability and are still far away from having found a road of development suitable for themselves. The second one refers to those countries with continuous turbulences, including Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq, the reconstruction of which has been seriously impeded. The third one covers most countries in Middle East that are faced with pressure of transformation. All these countries are making efforts to reform their politics and economy in order to solve long-lasting problems and enhance their capability in governance.

The above-mentioned three categories of countries are all faced with heavy pressure of transformation. Countries having resumed stability are shouldered with a task of exploring way and model for development. Countries with serious upheavals need to achieve stability at an earliest date. Countries faced with transformation pressure should tackle contradictions and avoid another “Arab Spring”through reform. The first two categories of countries were still in a stalemate of interwoven transformation and turbulence in 2016, and did not achieve any new breakthrough. There are two kinds of phenomenon that worth noticing for the countries faced with transformation pressure: the Gulf Arab countries are enthusiastically pushing forward transformation of national economic development while the attempted coup in Turkey disclosed the profound pressure the country faced with. It has become the common aspiration of the countries and people in the region to have stability, good governance and development.

Firstly, the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Committee represented by Saudi Arabia and known as the traditional major energy powers are making positive exploration in national transformation aimed at shackling one-fold economic structure by implementing a long-and-medium-term economic plan. In 2016, Saudi Arabia raised“vision 2030” scheme, UAE formulated“2021 Strategic Plan” and Qatar drafted“2030 National Development Plan”, all aimed at being free from dependence on oil and realizing diverse economic development modes. However, their prospect still needs to be observed.

Secondly, the happening of the attempted coup reflected the in-depth contradiction and crisis in Turkey. The year 2016 witnessed slow economic growth, frequent terrorist attacks, Erdogan's bulldozing of the presidential government, deepening diplomatic difficulties and attempted coup, all showing the fact that changes are taking place in Turkey, a country with decadelong prosperity and stability under the ruling of the Justice and Development Party. At present, contradictions between secular society and religious church, between state and society, between authority and democracy, between army and government, between ethnic groups and religions, between nationalities and ethnicities all constitute the major problems faced by Turkey in its process of transformation. The political, economic and social developments of Turkey have all entered a period of deep-going readjustment and transformation, and will very probably fall into a double-dilemma marked by economic recession and political turbulence.

Finally, having gone through the long-lasting turmoil in Middle East, the countries and people in the region long for development and stability, in particular good governance after chaos. An opinion poll showed that due to the lasting political turmoil, the expansion of extremism and terrorism and the continuous stagnant economy, both the ordinary people and the elites in Arab world have lost confidence in the so-called “Arab Spring”, and strongly yearn for political stability and economic development. To give an example, a poll named Arabic Public Opinion Index showed that the Arabians holding positive attitudes toward the “Arab Spring” have been decreased from 61% of the total population in 2013 to 34% in 2015. The data got from a survey on the young people in Arab countries in 2016 showed that, 53% of the young population believe that stability is more important than democracy, while only 28% think the other way. The above facts fully testify the shared aspiration of the countries and people in Middle East for stability, good governance and development. That might be where the hope lies for the turbulent Middle East.

10.19422/j.cnki.cn10-1398/d.2017.01.013