Research Office, International Department, CPC Central Committee

WORLD PARTY POLITICS IN 2016: FOCUS AND OUTLOOK

JI SI

Research Office, International Department, CPC Central Committee

In 2016, close to 60 countries across the global held national elections and world party politics, undergoing profound readjustment, bred new changes and new trends. Populism ran rampant, increasing the uncertainties of electoral politics and driving in-depth evolution of political ecology in various countries. The inherent defects of multiparty competition system became outstanding, traditional political pattern was in disorder, the governance function of political parties degenerated increasingly and strongman politics continued to rise, with worrying signs in party-building for some of the old, grand parties.

RAMPANT POPULISM AND RISINGRISKS FOR ELECTORAL POLITICS TO GET OUT OF CONTROL

The negative effects of globalization interwoven with institutional defects of Western liberal democracy have helped promote forceful rise of populism. On the one hand, major contradictions accumulated in the process of globalization broke out in concentration, voices of discontent of low-middle social strata and even part of the middle class were further amplified, and social strives and anger helped populism to crop up and swoop in political area. On the other, the response to the popular will by Western political institutions was weak and aroused mass antipathy, further propelling the spread of populism.

Europe found itself indeepmultiple crises of debt, refugee and terrorist attack. Governments and political elite of various countries failed to perform leadership as expected by the general public, which provided raging populism with “the most fertile soil”. Overall, populist parties in Europe were in a pattern of “leftwing rising in the South and rightwing, in the North”, namely, leftwing populist parties grew fast in South European countries like Greece, Spain and Italy whereas rightwing populist parties raged increasingly in West and North European countries such as France, the UK, Belgium, Finland, Denmark. Besides, rightwing populist parties revealed the clue of merging with traditional rightwing parties. National Frontof France and Freedom Party of Austriadrew on policy positions of traditional rightwing parties, moving towards central-right and taking up some of the traditional rightwing voters. Mainstream parties in quite a few countries could not hold a candle to populist forces with their once political predominance shaking and crumbling.

Against the backdrop of rising populism and increasing detachment of the elite from the grass-root society, the uncertainties of “electoral politics”increased further, exacerbatingthe confusion of democracy losing credibility, institutions losing effectiveness, politics losing order and governance lose means. In face of populism-driven“collective irrationality”, mainstay media found themselves in the dilemmaof talking to themselves and “losing accuracy” with their predictions, resulting in elections more often than not producing unexpected winners. Not only were politicians unable to reorganize interest of various parties and resolve conflicts through elections by“one person one vote” or referenda but also they found themselves besieged by elections and referenda.

Against this background, politics of Europe and the US became a mess of confusion and farce turned to be the order of the day. British Prime Minister Cameron had entertained the mindset of “exist should not come about”before he held the Brexit referendum so as to appease rebellious Eurosceptic forces within his party. However, by juggling with the fictitious, the referendum made Brexit real in a “carnival of irrationality”. When it became too late to regret, over 4 million people once more turned to the streets, demanding a “second referendum”. Caught in his own trap, Cameron resigned in disgrace. When Donald Trump, an outsider of politics began to run for President, he was considered a showstopper and mainstream media collectively badmouthed him, even claiming that election of Trump would be “a joke for American democracy”. However, by seizing on the dissatisfaction of the state of the union by people on mid and low social strata, their worries about the future and their fears of migrants from the outside, Trump rode on the powerful trend of thought of nativism and “neo-isolationism” in overcoming all difficulties on the way and turning into utter failures attempts of intra-party elite and opponent in election to encircle, pursue, obstruct and intercept him. Eventually, Trump won the election by reversing the offensive whereas the elite of American establishment represented by Hilary Clinton, though taking victoryin the bag, ended up in “unexpected” defeat.“Veteran” of French politics, former President Nicolas Sarkozy was eliminated by the first ballot in the primary for Presidential nomination of the Republican Party. Italian referendum for constitutional reform suffered a setback and Prime Minister Mario Lenzi, losing his “gamble”, resigned from office.

PATTERN OF TRADITIONAL POLITICS IS IN DISORDER AND POLARIZING PARTIES BECOMING PRAGMATIC AND SEEKING STABILITY

In the pattern of world party politics of 2016, traditional mainstay parties were markedly impacted. In elections for National Assembly of the ROK, the government party the Saenuri Party only acquired 122 seats out of 300, failing to pass the half mark whereas the opposition party the Minjoo Party became the largest party by a majority of one seat, the ROK once again finding itself in a situation of “the government smaller than the opposition in parliament”. In the general elections of Peru, the three major traditional parties the APRA Party,the Popular Action Party and the Christian People's Party caught less than 10% of the vote between them, highlighting their decline whereas Peruvians for Change candidate Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was elected President and the Popular Force Party led by Keiko Fujimori became the largest party in parliament. Such a patternforetold that parties would stand side by side like a forest and that the struggle between the Presidency and the Parliament would become a normal. In the Presidential Election in Austria, candidates of traditional major parties the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party were eliminated by the first ballot, catching 10.9% and 11.1% of the vote respectively. It was also for the first time for candidates of both parties to be taken out since Austria began to directly elect President in 1951.

Serious problemshave come up in alarge number over the process of globalization. The voice of discontent with the status quo has been growing among the middle and lower strata of society and even part of the middle class. Social problems and anger have expedited the growth of populism in the political sphere. The picture shows people in Paris are protesting on November 19, 2016 against Donald Trump's being elected president of the United States.

The longstanding pattern of “alteration between two parties” in some of the countries underwent delicate new changes. In the UK, as the Conservative Party and the Labour Party were tied up by crisis, the UK Independence Party and the Scottish National Party availed themselves of the situation in taking up political space formerly belonging to both of the major parties. As the popular representation of both parties in the US declined somehow, close to 60% of the general public supported a third party to change the present pattern of alteration between the two parties. In Spain, the pattern of alteration between the People's Party and the Socialist Workers' Party used to be quite stable. Recently, the control capacity of both parties declined, after the last general election it was difficult to produce a cabinet, the stalemate lasting for 10 month until a cabinet came bythe hard way.

Emerging political forces grew fast, addingto imbalance in Western party pattern. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose stunningly, participating in the state elections ofBaden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt for the first time and becomingthird, third and second largest party there respectively. It also occupied the second place in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election and the fifth place in the Berlin State election, diverting other parties' vote in varying degrees. In Spain, a general election was held again in 6 months, in which the Podemos (We Can) Party proved it could by solidly taking the third place. In Italy, the Five Star Movement captured two key cities of Rome and Turin in local elections, becoming the second largest political force in the country. In Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party won the first ballot of the Presidential Election and though not winning the Presidency in the end, the surprise soaked European politics with cold sweat never the less.

After consolidating their electoral bases, some of the polarizing parties, taking long-term perspectives and in the hope to take power, turned to be more pragmatic in policy and concepts.The National Front of France resolutely drew a demarcation line with its past anti-Semitist and racist views, currying favor with Jewish and Muslim groups, expelling members with extreme racism from the party and strengthening its efforts tomonitor its members in social media in order to screen and discipline members with racist tendency. In Greece, though the Greek SYRIZA Party took power by promoting “social equity”, it had to increase “privatization”and remove part of medical benefit from retirees in face of practical fiscal constraints. The Alternative for Germany adopted its first partyprogram, accelerating its transformation from a protest party to a “conservative party of a nation-state”. The Sweden Democrats intentionally watered down its image of extremism, actively currying favor with the Moderate Party, the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats in order to break the encirclement by mainstay parties and working its way into the cabinet. Polarizing parties in developing countries were also on the move. The Al-Nahda (“renaissance” or“revival”) movement in Tunisia diluted its religious identity and positioned itself as a “democratic, modern and non-religious party with Tunisian characteristics and Islamic identity”.

UNDER PINCER ATTACKS OF POPULIST FORCES AND RIGHTWING PARTIES, LEFTWING FORCES GENERALLY GOWEAK

In many European countries social democratic parties found themselves in the “predicaments of being in three absences”, namely in absence of systemic program, political features and prestigious leaders, being double squeezed by the expansion of ultra-left and ultraright forces. Whit the Presidential Election of 2017 drawing near, President Hollande of the French Socialist Party found his poll rating dipping and announced that he would not seek re-election. The whole left camp of France is confused in thinking and cannot find a capable candidate. It seems to be a done deal in French politics for“the leftwing to regress and the rightwing to progress”. Austria Chancellor and President of the Social Democrats Christian Kernenjoyed rising poll rating however his popular support did not convert to the support for his party as a whole. Aiming at taking power and obstruct a cabinet of the People's Party, former General Secretary of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party Pedro Sánchez gave lopsided emphasis on being tough with negative effects on the image of his party, leading to serious decline in the performances of the party in local elections of autonomous communities of Galicia and Basque. As a result, Sánchez was forced to resign by intra party forces. In Japan, the Minshintō Party was founded from the merger of the Democratic Party and the Innovation Party however it still could not hold the candle to the Liberal Democrats in terms of force and momentum whereas it remained difficult for the Social Democrats to change its position as a small, marginal party.

Except isolated cases like the Communist Party of Japan and the Communist Party of South Africa that increased their influence and consolidated their positions, in general communist parties in non-socialist countries remain small and weak. Although the Left Democratic Frontled by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) kept its government in the state of Tripura and recovered the state of Kerala, it remained in “exile” from the state of West Bengal which it had lost in 2010. In West Bengal, the political capital it had accumulated over its government for 30 years running consumed seriously, in 2016 its electoral performance being even less impressive than that of the National Congress Party. Different factions of Communists in Nepal went through unity and disunity like a roller-coaster. Though the Maoist factions of the Communists merged into the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre), it would take more time for the various forces to further consolidate unity. As a whole, the strength of Communist Parties in Latin America was weakened appallingly. Both the Communist Party of Argentinaand the Communist Party of Communist Party of Brazil lost their status as coalition partners in government ascenter-left coalition lost office in both countries. In Moldova, the Party of Communists was troubled by intra party contradictions and kept dividing, its influence being in decline. Ukraine passed a law banning Communism and the Communist Party of Ukraine was judged unlawful, its environment for subsistence increasingly deteriorating.

Leftwing in Latin America suffered serious setbacks, the number of countries under center-left government being reduced from 16 to about 10. In Argentina, the center-right forces made a comeback and returned to government, increasingly leaning on the US and Europe. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party wasimpeachedand removed from office. Founder of the party and former President Lula came under corruption probe. In municipal election, the Workers' Party won only 254 mayorships out of a total of 5568. In Venezuela, the Opposition organized for several times mass demonstrations to force a referendum on the removal of President Maduro from office. In Bolivia, a constitutional referendum was held on an amendment to allow the president and vice-president to run for a third consecutive term, which was voted down, dashing the hope for Evo Morales to run for a third term. In Peru, both Presidential and Parliamentary elections resulted in the victory of the rightwing. In Ecuador, the Sovereign Fatherland Alliance movement continued to be in government. In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Movement was reelected, though this alone was not able to overturn the current situation of the leftwing of Latin America retreating to hold on small and mid-sized countries.

STRONGMAN POLITICS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND EFFORTS OF OLD AND BIG PARTIES IN LONGSTANDING GOVERNMENT TO SUPPRESS CHAOS AND SEEK GOOD GOVERNANCE UNDERSCORE THE PREDICAMENTS IN PARTYBUILDING

Political strongman remains the axil of political life in some of the developing countries. On the one hand, as Western-style operation mechanisms of party politics are weakened, the functions of political parties in expressing the popular will, integrating opinions, selecting elite and governing a countrydegenerate and in political life of various countries the tendency of departy-ization and de-politicization is striking. On the other, as all countries are faced with serious challenges in national development and social governance, the mindset of the general public in seeking stability and fearing chaos stands out, calling for strong leaders to come out and put the situation under control.

In Russia, the United Russia Party won federal Duma elections with an overwhelming two thirds majority, laying a solid foundation for Putin to firmly control the political situation. After the aborted coup, Turkish President Erdogan restored order by an iron wrist and quickened the pace to attainthe objectives of his political reform toward presidential system and to consolidate his authoritarian position. In Kazakhstan, President Nazarbayev's position appears to be unshakable, being “the only President since the founding of the country”. Tajikistan established a presidential system of government, there being no term limits for President Rahmon to be returned to the office again and again. The new Tanzanian President Magufuli of the Revolutionary Party has been well received for his performance of office, further strengthening the government position of his party. In Ethiopia, unbalanced economic development and ethnical strives gave rise to unrest, but the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front responded rapidly and forcefully put the situation under control. In Uganda, President Museveni was successful with re-election, starting his fifth term. In Chad, General Idriss Débybecame President in 1991 and was re-elected for the fifth time in 2016. In Cape Verde, President Fonseca was once more returned to the office with a majority of 73.8%, giving him a huge lead of all other candidates. In Equatorial Guinea, President Obiang was reelected with an impressive 93.7% of the vote. In Niger, President Issoufou was successfully re-elected by taking severe measures against his opponents and dividing their forces. In face of an unfavorable situation of a sharp economic downturn, Zambian President Lungu was able to win reelection in the first ballot by stabilizing the economy on the one hand and squeezing the space of the Opposition on the other. In Gabon, when a controversial general election lead to political confusion, President Bongosent in the military and police to control the situation and won reelection by iron wrist means.

At the same time, some of the old and big parties found a pile of hidden worries in their party building. First, quite a few parties face “leadership crisis”, as some of the parties encounter unsmooth succession at the top level, some of them lacking mechanisms for smooth transition of power and others having no designated successors as their top leaders, though advanced in age, would not give up power after being in office for many years. Some of the parties are not effective in nurturing reserved force of the party, resulting in a gap in building an echelon of cadres and risks of having no successors. Secondly, grass-root organizations are weakened. Some of the parties have a large membership in vain with a mere “hollow structure” of organization that is in factweak and slack, unable to take unified actions. Thirdly, corruption is prevalent. On the one hand, as most of the “most corrupt”are the top leadersand their trusted followers, anti-corruption at high level would be nothing less than “shooting themselves in the foot”, and therefore they lack the political will and determination of eradicating corruption. On the other hand, constrained by the system of multi-party competition, many parties are at horns of dilemma on anti-corruption: either to be rejected by the voters or to face resistance of the vested-interest within the party and even the risk of party elite turning to the opposite party.

The negative effects of globalization interwoven with institutional defects of Western liberal democracy have helped promote forceful rise of populism.

Looking into 2017, as about forty countries will hold national elections, world political party politics may unfold the following features. First, it is difficult to resolve the confusion in Western-style multi-party democratic politics. The ant-elite, anti-establishment and even anti-Western-style democracy wave may continue to put on“black swan events” in electoral politics of various countries, further deepening global rethinking on Western values, institutions and ideology. Second, it will be inevitable for liberalism to subside and for conservatism to rise again and it is likely for mainstream parties to orientate their policy toward populist sentiments. Third, the trend will continue to increase for some of the populist parties to de-radicalize, to be pragmatic and to get into the mainstream. Fourth, across the global the development of center-left forces will continue to face major challenges. It is difficult to substantially reverse the situation where the popular basis of Western socialist parties and most of the communist parties is shunted and the space for their development, constrained. Facing this round of forceful backwash of rightwing forces, the Latin American leftwing will keep the posture of “overall slide-down and local hold-on”.

10.19422/j.cnki.cn10-1398/d.2017.01.007