President, China Institute of International Studies

REMAINING CALM IN COMPLEX SITUATION: A REVIEW OF THE WORLD IN 2016

SU GE

President, China Institute of International Studies

China's influenceon the international landscape became increasingly prominent in 2016. The picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping attending the opening ceremony of China-Latin America Media Leaders Summit at the headquarters of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Santiago on November 22, 2016. Amid warm applause, Xi Jinping delivered a speech entitled “Create a New Pattern of China-Latin America Media Cooperation”.

The year 2016 has witnessed ups and downs of the international situation, with frequent breakouts of black swan events. The international pattern has gone through very complex and in-depth readjustments and transformation. Conventional and unconventional security issues interweaved with one another. With increasing risks and challenges, regional security situation has worsened. The globalization has been playing an even prominent role of a double-edged sword. The global economy has faced higher pressure of downturn and even tightened financial environment. The division of developed economies and polarization of rich and poor both intensified. The emerging economies have been developing in twists and turns. China's influence on international pattern has been continuously expanding, and its role in global governance has been constantly rising.

MUCH CHAOS IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

US general election drew the world attention. As the biggest black swan event, the 2016 general election in the United States has reflected the disorder of the western system. The election of the Republican candidate Donald Trump as the 45th President of the US on November 9 symbolized the biggest crisis of capitalist elite politics since WWII. The free flow of capital brought about by globalization encouraged the monopoly of capital and loss of jobs in industrialized countries. The widening gap between rich and poor resulted in the expanding of social inequality in the US. With very little achievements in his reform, President Obama failed to bring benefits to his people. The Iran nuclear agreement, resumption of US-Cuba diplomatic relations, climate change agreement and other diplomatic legacies of the Obama administration were too far from people's benefits. Social conflicts in the US were intensified with rising populism, isolationism and anti-institution sentiment. Trump won the election by making use of people's sense of deprivation, particularly the serious dissatisfaction among the lower middle class and by playing the card of transformation with “the America First” slogan to cater to the people's anti-globalization mentality. The strategic choice and policy implementation of the US new administration may cause major change in world pattern.

Britain's withdrawal from the EU has surprised the entire world. UK had a public poll on 23rd June 2016, and on the next day the result showed the victory of the Brexiteers. Europe has witnessed unstable situation in recently years: economy debilitated by debt crisis; the biggest refugee crisis since WWII caused by the swarms of refugees; social security and public mental defense in Europe challenged by successive terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, the European integration process has been seriously affected by the Brexit. As a result, the awareness of crisis and sense of urgency to deepen the integration have been enhanced, which will significantly influence the pattern and order of international relations. It is still worth observing that whether some countries in EU inclined to withdrawal from EU or Euro Zone will follow UK. Furthermore, the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Renzi and the victory of French presidential candidate “black horse” Fillon have both affected the European politics.

Russia-Turkey Relationship has been improved dramatically. A Russian warplane was shot down by Turkey's military aircrafts on November 24, 2015, which shocked the whole world and brought the bilateral relations to the freezing point. However, Turkey made a U-turn in its policy by sending a letter from President Erdogan to President Putin to apologize for the warplane shoot-down. Before that, Erdogan did not get any substantial support from the western countries on the Russia-Turkey disputes, while Russia appeared more reliable than the US on the key moment of the coup attempt. That somewhat showed the strategic orientation of Turkey as well as its gaming in the relations with the US, Russia and Europe.

NEW CHALLENGES IN EXISTING ISSUES

The chaotic situation in Middle East was full of dangers. With very little progress, the reconstruction of order has been in vague. The Middle East situation remained complicated and serious in 2016. With enhanced efforts and intervention of the United States and Russia, Syria was gradually reduced to be a victim of in-depth political gaming between major countries. Russia's military intervention was an attempt for reversing its strategic difficulty as a result of US and European squeeze. Various parties, though holding high the shared banner of anti-terrorism, had different thoughts. Both the US and Russia avoided to touch each other's bottom line in their fierce contest. Antagonistic towards each other, the Sunnite represented by Saudi Aria and the Shiite represented by Iran ran counter to each other in different areas. There were still quite a number of conflicts between Iran and the US although the nuclear agreement had already been implemented. The Aleppo War resulted in the disputes in the UN Security Council at the end of the year. Though having encircled Mosul and seriously weakened the “Islamic State”, a complete solution of anti-terrorism remains a long-term task of the international community. It still needs to be observed whether the US and Russia could achieve compromise on Syria after Trump won the election.

The security in Asia Pacific was in turbulence. Worrying about its traditional position in Asia Pacific being challenged by rising powers or even being squeezed out of the region, the US intensified its “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” Strategy. With the enhancement of the US-Japan alliance, the unstable factors in regional security were increasing. Japan's politics went towards the right deviation, symbolized by the fact that its New Security Act aimed at lifting the banning of its right of collective self-defense came into effect by the end of March 2016. At the beginning of 2016, the world-shocked nuclear test of DPRK not only resulted in a new round of sanctions by the UN Security Council, but also provided the US, Japan and ROK with an excuse to strengthen their military deployment in Northeast Asia. At the beginning of July, the US and ROK jointly declared that they would deploy THAAD antimissile system, which symbolized a major adjustment of ROK's foreign policy as well as its relationship with China, and served as a significant progress of US “Asia Pacific Rebalancing”. The deployment of THAAD has also seriously hurt the strategic interests of both China and Russia. Entrapped in the crisis of being accused of political meddling by her close friend, ROK President Park Geun-Hye was impeached by the National Assembly in December. The military alliance among the US, Japan and ROK was further elevated with the signing of the “Military Information Protection Agreement” between Japan and ROK.

Long-drown-out problems persistedin Europe. The US and Europe speeded up their joint efforts in strengthening NATO for a strategic pressing on Russia. However, the US and Europe had different ideas. For example, France and the US held different positions towards the Syria issue. The fiercest geopolitical contest after the Cold War brought about by the Ukraine crisis with the US and Europe on one side and Russia on the other would inflict constant impact on regional security pattern. The year 2016 witnessed the ease of the tensions between Russia and the West as a result of Ukraine crisis. Faced with various internal and external problems, EU explicitly expressed that it would put off the consideration of Ukraine's admission to EU and NATO. The state leaders of the “Normandy Four” met in Berlin in October and reached basic consensus on the “roadmap” for implementing the Minsk Agreement and solving the Ukraine problem. Trump's victory in the election caused Europe's worry about the US readjustment of its policy towards Ukraine. Moreover, Trump has spoken critically of both the Paris agreement on climate change and the TTIP. Anti-free trade and anti-globalization tendencies in the US, once occurred, will certainly bring about impact on security and economic interests of Europe.

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE STILL AN ARDUOUS TASK

The world economy went through difficult recovery. With a prominent role as a double-edged sword, economic globalization witnessed the coexistence of “integration” and “fragmentation” in 2016. This year's world economy grew by 3.1% according to IMF estimation. The tide of voices against globalization was seen everywhere, which defined the backdrop for the development of the world economy. The sustainability of developed economies was no more, marked by the decline of the growth rate from 2.1% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2016. With insufficient recovery power, the world economy was still under the pressure of declining. Global demand, bulk commodity market and crude oil price were all running at low region. Among the emerging economies, China and India, although with considerable economic dynamics, were both faced with increasing pressure. With one-fold economic structure, Russia suffered from the “curse of natural resources” caused by the lowering of crude oil price and the western sanction further worsened its economy. Brazil was busy struggling with slow development, economic depression and financial difficulty, and its political reshuffling intensified.

Global governance faced with growing deficit. Global problems grew abruptly while the institutional supply of international system was severely insufficient. The ability of western countries in creating and providing public products has been decreasing against the backdrop of expanding global governance deficit. The international relations witnessed coexistence of partnership and contradictions, with continuous cooperation and gaming among major countries. The “Cold War” mentality occasionally inflicted negative impact on international security and the UN had a long-term and arduous task in safeguarding peace and security. Conventional security challenges and threats still existed while unconventional security problems became prominent. “Zero sum”games featuring lose-lose or multi-losers might hurt the stability of the foundation for global governance system, and even brought about an inflection point in the process of globalization.

Achievements have been made in international cooperation. The organizational committee of UN climate conference declared on November 4th that the Paris Climate Change Agreement reached with joint efforts of nearly 200 countries came into effect. The Agreement targets on controlling the global air temperature within 2 degrees Celsius higher than that before the industrial revolution, and within 1.5 degrees as a further goal. The carbon emission of China and the US together account for 39% of the world total. In that sense, China-US cooperation has played a very important leading role in the rectification of the Agreement. The new Agreement has defined both direction and objectives for post-2020 global cooperation in dealing with climate change. However, the attitude of the new US regime towards international cooperation in climate change in 2017 will add uncertainties to the existing agreements and future progress in relevant areas. In addition, on the fourth security summit in March, the state leaders reached important consensus on strengthening nuclear security as well as reducing nuclear terrorist threats. In the field of public health, the UN high-level meeting on HIV/ AIDS in June made a commitment to put an end on the epidemic disease. The UN Assembly summit on refugees and migrants in September adopted a political statement and achievements were already made in international cooperation.

MORE REMARKABLE CHINA'S INFIUENCE

G20 Hangzhou Summit has uplifted confidence. The Summit was hosted in China in September, themed “Toward an Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected and Inclusive World Economy”which was of distinctive Chinese characteristics and covering the expectation and pursuit of all parties. Five objectives have been achieved, namely a direction defined and a clear path forged for world economy; innovation to boost world economic growth; improvement of global economic and financial governance for transformation of G20 from a crisis responder to a lasting effect management mechanism; revitalization of the role of international trade and investment as two major engines; and promotion of the inclusive and coordinated development. The Summit has given impetus in an all-round way to world economic innovation, structural reform, global development and comprehensive governance. Having made positive efforts in spreading Chinese concepts, putting forward Chinese initiatives and contributing Chinese solutions, China un-precedentedly approaches the center of the world economic management and global comprehensive governance, and is playing a constant and new leading role.

New perspectives appeared on South China Sea. In the excuse of “freedom of navigation and overflight”, the US frequently sent its fleets and battle planes to navigate and fly over around the islands and reefs in South China Sea, which disturbed the peace and stability of the region. Moreover, the so-called“South China Sea arbitration case” disregards the fact and makes a deliberate misinterpretation out of the context of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Chinese Government at the very beginning has solemnly declared its stance of non-participation, non-acceptance, non-recognition and non-implementation. When the illegal rule came forth, the US and Japan cozied up with some countries to make trouble in the region, which resulted in the dark clouds over South China Sea for some time. After Duterte's election as the new President of the Philippines, the relationship between China and the Philippines witnessed significant opportunities for improvement. During President Duterte's state visit to China in October, both sides reached important consensus on the improvement and development of the bilateral relations in an all-round way and agreed to return to the right track of solving the South China Sea issue through dialogues. After the talks, the two heads of state witnessed the signing of a number of documents on bilateral cooperation. The improvement of China-Philippines relationship serves as a blow to the US “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” Strategy as well as the attempt of some international forces to mess up regional situation with South China Sea issue.

The “Belt and Road” initiative marched forward steadily. The five overseas visits paid by President Xi in 2016 have played a leading role and effectively advanced the building of the “Belt and Road”. Fifty-two cooperation documents were signed during President Xi's visit to the Middle East at the beginning of the year. In the Central and Eastern Europe, the “Belt and Road” and “16+1 Cooperation” have both achieved new fruits. In October, President Xi paid visit to Cambodia and Bangladesh, and traveled to Goa of India for the BRICS Summit. Having docked with the “Rectangular Strategy”of Cambodia and “The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation”, the “Belt and Road” initiative gave impetus to the building of Bangladesh-China-India-Mymmar Economic Corridor. President Xi's visit to Latin America and attending the APEC meeting in

The situationin the Middle East remains complex and grave. The region is a “powder keg” that may blow at any time. The picture shows the withdrawal of Syria's opposition armed forces from Aleppo on December 19, 2016.

November was at a time when a current of anti-globalization was spreading. When delivering the important speech at the business leaders' summit, President Xi stressed his firm determination of advancing economic globalization. Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank started operation in 2016, and the first batch of infrastructure project loans provided to the countries along the “Belt and Road” has landed. The Silk Road Fund has been in smooth operation. With the implementation of a large number of key projects and significant progress of economic corridors building, the “Belt and Road” has scored remarkable early-stage achievements.

A LONG AND ARDUOUS WAY TO THE BRIGHT FUTURE

Looking into 2017, the multi-polarization of the world may further develop. Changing of international geopolitical environment and readjustment of relations among major countries will exert far-reaching and sophisticated impact on international relations. Encountered with setbacks and even faced difficulties, globalization may be changed or even transformed, yet it's hard to stop its progress. The US new regime starts adjustment of both domestic and foreign policies. Britain kicks off the process of withdrawal from EU. Germany and France are both entering the year of general election. The US and Russia may welcome interaction in bilateral relationship. China as a positive actor in safeguarding peace, stability and development will host two major international events, namely the first International Cooperation Summit Forum for the “Belt and Road” Initiative and the 9th Meeting of BRICS Leaders. Under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, taking into consideration both domestic and international situations and coordinating both development and security, China's foreign affairs will hold high the banners of peace, development, cooperation and win-win results and make all efforts to push forward China's influence on international arena, so as to create a favorable international surrounding for the successful convening of the 19th National Congress of the CPC.

10.19422/j.cnki.cn10-1398/d.2017.01.004