张鹏飞++陶纪坤��

摘要：2016年1月1日全面二孩政策正式实施，结束了我国实施将近30年的独生子女政策。本文通过构建城镇职工基本养老保险收入和支出模型，以研究2016—2100年全面二孩政策下基本养老金收支关系的变化。研究发现，生育二孩的夫妇越多，养老统筹基金开始出现支出大于收入的年份相应地向后推移，处于支出大于收入的年份区间相应地缩小，并且，养老统筹基金的累计结余随之增加。研究进一步发现，当二孩生育比例处于10%—30%的低生育水平，在维持原财务状况不变时，基本养老保险缴费率可下降到1444%—1775%；处于50%—70%的中生育水平时，基本养老保险缴费率可下降到1036%—1210%；处于90%—100%的高生育水平时，基本养老保险缴费率可下降到844%—901%。这表明全面放开二孩政策能够改善我国养老统筹基金的收支关系，缓解养老统筹基金的支付压力，但是该政策受到生育保障力度的影响。

关键词：全面二孩政策；养老保险；城镇职工；收支关系

中图分类号：F84067文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4149（2017）01-0104-12

DOI：103969/jissn1000-4149201701011

收稿日期：收稿日期2016-05-26；修订日期：2016-11-10

作者简介：作者简介张鹏飞，江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院硕士研究生；陶纪坤，经济学博士，江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院副教授。

本文通讯作者为张鹏飞。

（英）A Quantitative Study of the Financial Balance in the Aspect of the Old Age Insurance in

the Context of the Universal Twochild Policy

（英）作者姓名ZHANG Pengfei， TAO Jikun

（英）作者单位（School of Public Finance and Public Administration，Jiangxi University of Finance

and Economics，Nanchang 330013， China）

Abstract：（英）摘要：The universal twochild policy was officially implemented in January 1， 2016， which ended the onechild policy in China for nearly thirty years.This paper makes income and expenditure modes of the basic pension insurance for urban employees to research the effect of the universal twochild policy in 2016-2100. It comes to the conclusions as follows： when more couples give birth to 2 children， the year of the basic pension fund that beginning excess of spending over income would

go back， the number of years that excess of spending over income would decrease， and the cumulative balance of the basic pension fund increase. We further found that when the birth rate for the twochild is in the low level of 10%—30%， the basic pension insurance contribution rate can be reduced to 1444%—1775% while the original financial condition unchanged；When the birth rate for the twochild is from 50% to 70%， the basic pension insurance contribution rate can be reduced to 1036%—1210%；When the birth rate for the twochild is from 90% to 100%， the basic pension insurance contribution rate can be reduced to 844%—901%.Therefore， the universal twochild policy can improve the relationship of income and spending in the basic pension fund， and relieve the payment pressure of the pension insurance system， but the policy is affected by the proportion of the twochild.

Keywords：（英）關键词：twochild policy； pension insurance；urban employees；the relationship of income and spending

《人口与经济》2017年第1期

张鹏飞，等：全面二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险收支的影响

一、引言

党的十八届五中全会提出：“坚持计划生育的基本国策，完善人口发展战略，全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策，积极开展应对人口老龄化行动。……